l   SAVE LTC CAMPAIGN   l   Articles, Speeches & Reports   l   LTC Bullets Newsletters   l   Media   l   Members-Only Zone   l   LTC TV   l   Search   l   About Us   l   Contact Us   l   Home  
|  
Join and Contribute Online   l   LTC Graduate Seminar   |


Our Mission:

The Center for LTC Reform is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality long-term care for all Americans by promoting public policy that targets scarce public resources to the neediest, while encouraging people who are young, healthy and affluent enough, to take responsibility for themselves.   We do this through...


Read the Center's two latest reports published by the Paragon Health Institute:
Long-Term Care: The Problem and Long-Term Care: The Solution

Watch Paragon’s web event: Long-Term Care: The Problem and The Solution

VIDEO -- Examining Abuses of Medicaid Eligibility Rules -- Includes Congressional testimony from Steve Moses (at 18min:45sec)
NEED A SPEAKER? Have Steve Moses speak at your next event.
"Clash of the Titans: Moses vs Gordon on Medicaid and other Dark Matter"
at the 12th Annual ILTCI Conference. Listen.
How Can You Work with the Center for LTC Reform?
Take our virtual tour of the Center's website.  This video webinar explains how to access and navigate the valuable content on the CLTCR website.
Read Medicaid Planning Quotes / Read "LTC Predictions" / Read Testimonials

CHECK OUT OUR LTC ALMANAC (Members Only)
Not a CLTCR member?  Get a free trial membership for your sneak peak at our LTC Almanac and Members-Only Zone. 
Contact us at 206-283-7036 or info@centerltc.com

Membership Levels and Benefits
CLTCR Handout

 
ANNOUNCING:
The Save LTC Campaign
We Need Your Help!
Learn about our Members-Only Zone
Hear Steve Moses tell all about the online
version of our LTC Graduate Seminar

The CLTCR National LTC
Consciousness Tour Retrospective


ADS

Place your advertisement here.  

Email info@centerltc.com or call Damon at 206-283-7036 for advertising rates.   





American Independent Marketing 




 





Join the Center for Long-Te Care Reform.  Help us fight for rational LTC policy reform.  Receive our daily email publications.  Get a user name and password to our Members-Only Zone.  Only $150 per year.  Mail your check to Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc., 2212 Queen Anne Avenue North, #110, Seattle, Washington, 98109.  Contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com if you have questions.  Join the team!

 

 

 


READ STEVE'S BIO

#############################

 

Updated Monday, August 17, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-029:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • How to Save Money on Long-Term Care

  • How the HCBS Access Act would reshape assisted living demand and workforce

  • Why maximizing nuanced Medicaid case-mix isn’t an ‘impossible task’

  • Why Long-Term Care Planning Could Be A Defining Wealth Issue of The Next Decade

  • Rethinking the Role of Pay for Performance in Federal Health Care Quality Programs

  • A Look at Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services: Background and Policy Landscape

  • I built my mom a 1,000-square-foot tiny home in my backyard. I can care for her now that she's closer to me

  • Hospitality meets healthcare: Why senior living is borrowing from boutique hotels

  • Higher physical fitness levels linked to lower all-cause mortality among older adults, study finds

  • Caregivers And Retirement

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, August 10, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-028:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • CareScout Redefines Worksite Long-Term Care Insurance With a Solution That Goes Further for Employers and Employees

  • Senior care and living sector outperforms others in real estate for seventh quarter in a row

  • Providers tap new AI tools to minimize managed care requests and denials

  • The Facts About Medicare Spending

  • How CMS Can Restore Program Integrity to Medicaid by Eliminating Passive Redetermination Requirements

  • Lumos Insurance Introduces the Immediate Care Plan to Help Families Fund Long-Term Care

  • Can You Actually Get Paid to Care for an Aging Parent?

  • Ownership changes, regulatory and reimbursement pressures top reasons for nursing home closures, study finds

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com). 

#############################

Updated Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: PARAGON ON MEDICAID AND LONG-TERM CARE

LTC Comment: Paragon Health Institute, America’s leading health policy think tank, brought Medicaid and LTC inequities to the Senate Budget Committee’s attention this week. The hearing video is captivating. We elaborate after the ***news.***

*** 8/4/2026, “Lumos Insurance Introduces the Immediate Care Plan to Help Families Fund Long-Term Care,” StreetInsider.com

Quote:Lumos Insurance™ today announced the general availability* of its Immediate Care Plan, a fully underwritten single premium immediate annuity built for people who already need paid care. A single lump sum is exchanged for guaranteed monthly income for life, with payments beginning within one month, so families can fund an assisted living community, a memory care unit, or in-home care without drawing down every other asset they have. … The Immediate Care Plan addresses what Lumos calls the Care Gap: the recurring difference between the monthly cost of formal care and the income a family already has coming in from Social Security, a pension, or other sources. … ‘The Care Gap is showing up in advisors' offices every week, and without a solution, it can put a lifetime of savings at risk,’ said Vince Bodnar, President of Lumos Insurance and a two-time chairperson of the Society of Actuaries' Long-Term Care Insurance Section. ‘When a product is priced for the average person instead of the individual, families may commit more assets than their situation requires. The families arriving at the care transition today deserve solutions built for their actual circumstances — not actuarial averages. Lumos is excited to offer our Immediate Care Plan to help meet this need.’”

LTC Comment: Congratulations to Center-corporate-member Lumos and its president Vince Bodnar on the introduction of this promising new solution to a longstanding problem for LTC consumers. ***

 

LTC BULLET: PARAGON ON MEDICAID AND LONG-TERM CARE

LTC Comment: Paragon president Brian Blase described the hearing and his testimony in the Institute’s weekly newsletter:

Medicaid: The Reality” was the first Senate Budget Committee hearing under Chairman Ron Johnson’s leadership. My oral testimony focused on Medicaid’s fundamentally broken financing incentives. I explained that the ACA created a financing formula that pays states roughly $9 in federal funds for every $1 they spend on able-bodied, working-age Medicaid expansion adults, compared to an average of $1.33 for every $1 spent on traditional enrollees. That sevenfold disparity encourages states to prioritize expansion adults over the populations Medicaid was originally created to serve—and has resulted in worse health care access for traditional enrollees. I also described how provider taxes, state-directed payments, and other financing arrangements have evolved into a legalized Medicaid money-laundering apparatus that shifts costs from states to federal taxpayers while generating tens of billions of dollars in corporate welfare for politically powerful providers, insurers, and consultants.”

Do yourself a favor and watch this video of the full hearing: “Medicaid: The Reality” . It is engaging and informative, but for pure entertainment value, check out the exchange between Senator John Kennedy and Brian Blase. Also of interest, testimony by Jonathan Ingram, Vice President of Policy and Research at the Foundation for Government Accountability, concerning Medicaid’s excessive improper payments. The third witness at the hearing, Mr. Andy Schneider,
Research Professor of the Practice Center for Children and Families, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, is a study in hapless defense of Medicaid’s dysfunctions in the face of hard, empirical evidence of their damage.

But you might ask: What does this have to do with long-term care? ObamaCare’s (ACA’s) expansion population generates 90% federal matching funds for state Medicaid programs when they cover able-bodied, working age adults. At seven times the match for poor women, children, the aged, blind and disabled (ABD), this distorted incentive moved Medicaid funding away from the program’s traditional, more vulnerable enrollees. For example, ABD recipients were a quarter of total enrollment in 2010 (when the ACA passed) and they consumed nearly 2/3 of all Medicaid expenditures. By 2025, ABD recipients were down to 1/5 of total enrollments and they accounted for only half of total expenditures. This ABD population consumes the majority of LTC benefits—including nursing facility care and home and community-based services (HCBS). LTC alone accounts for approximately one-third (30% to 33%) of all Medicaid spending, despite being used by only 6% of total Medicaid recipients who are mostly ABD. Prioritizing able-bodied, working age adults over Medicaid’s original target population of those most vulnerable and in need has changed the program’s focus from helping those with the greatest need into a non-tax federal money generator for states.

More on Long-Term Care

Congressional hearing testimony generally takes the form of brief verbal statements by witnesses who also submit much more detailed written testimony. Most interesting to us is that Brian Blase’s written testimony included the following content close to our hearts. By highlighting the problem of excessive use of Medicaid LTC by people who could, should and would have paid their own way and stayed off Medicaid, Blase pointed the way toward better policy to benefit both the poor and the more affluent.

The following is a quote from Brian Blase’s written testimony:

“MEDICAID’S DAMAGE TO RESPONSIBLE LONG-TERM CARE PLANNING

“A fundamental flaw in America’s long-term care system is that Medicaid has evolved from a safety net for the poor into an inheritance protection program for many households with substantial assets. Through generous asset exemptions, home equity exclusions, trusts, and estate-planning strategies, many individuals can qualify for taxpayer-financed long-term care while preserving significant wealth for their heirs. Rather than requiring families to use accumulated assets to finance their own care before relying on public assistance, current policy often allows Medicaid to pay first while inheritances remain largely intact. This is inequitable to taxpayers who save responsibly and distorts the program’s original purpose.

“These policies also create powerful disincentives for individuals to prepare for their own long-term care needs. When people expect Medicaid to cover nursing home costs or home-based care after modest planning or asset restructuring, they have less reason to purchase long-term care insurance, accumulate dedicated savings, or otherwise plan for a predictable risk associated with aging. The result is a classic moral hazard: private financing declines because public financing is readily available. As more people rely on Medicaid, the program consumes more taxpayer resources while providers become increasingly dependent on low Medicaid reimbursement rates, contributing to workforce shortages, limited access to high-quality care, and persistent financial pressures throughout the long-term care system.68

“The irony is that these policies often harm the very people they are intended to help. By encouraging reliance on Medicaid rather than personal planning, they weaken the market for private long-term care financing and reduce the resources available to improve care quality for the most vulnerable. A system that requires individuals with sufficient means to finance more of their own long-term care before turning to Medicaid would better preserve the program for those with genuine financial need while encouraging greater personal responsibility and a stronger private market for long-term care services.

“III. Recommendations to Improve the Medicaid Program …

“Reform Medicaid long-term care

“Medicaid should not be used to preserve inheritances for wealthy heirs. Congress should ensure that people with sizeable assets are not able to use Medicaid to finance their long-term care expenses.

“These reforms will reduce waste, fraud and abuse and provide Medicaid a responsible fiscal trajectory to ensure we continue to have the ability to care for our most vulnerable.”

68 Stephen Moses, "Long-Term Care: The Problem," Paragon Health Institute, October 2022, https://paragoninstitute.org/medicaid/long-term-care-problem/

LTC Comment: My role as a Visiting Fellow with the Paragon Health Institute has widened the reach of the Center for LTC Reform’s research and analysis through numerous reports and articles for Paragon.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, August 3, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-027:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • How to make social care sustainable

  • Federal Government Spending Is a Leaky Bucket

  • New resource helps senior living professionals share sector’s value proposition over staying at home

  • The Retirement Myth Everyone Gets Wrong About Medicare

  • The Medicaid Rule That Can Put Your Family Home at Risk

  • Retirement-long medical expenses increasing for older adults, cutting into savings

  • How Much Would A Public Long-Term Care Insurance Program Cost?

  • As the cost of aging soars, families’ wealth is evaporating 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, July 27, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-026:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Kansas City won’t escape the US debt crisis. Here’s what we must do now

  • The Average Net Worth of Americans at 85, And The 8 Assets Separating the Comfortable From the Struggling

  • Rewarding Reform, Punishing Neglect: How Annual Improper Payment Reviews Can Fix Medicaid Accountability

  • Managed care plan’s termination of assisted living program leaves providers in limbo

  • Caregiver Burnout — Why Generic Advice Fails and What Works

  • Older adults’ home equity reaches a record $14.92T in first quarter

  • BREAKING: New exclusion authority expected to be ‘force multiplier’ for CMS fraud enforcement

  • Despite DOJ policy shift, state obligations to people with disabilities remain

  • SNF occupancy hits highest level in a decade: NIC

  • Spouses of patients with dementia nearly 75 percent more likely to develop same condition, large study finds

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, July 24, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: LONG-TERM CARE FRAUD

LTC Comment: LTC fraud is large and growing especially in the public sector, which could learn from the private sector’s better identification and control methods. We announce a new Center report on LTC fraud, after the ***news.***

*** illumifin, the leading insurance third party administrator (TPA) and longtime Center-corporate member, inspired and assisted our work on LTC insurance fraud. The company’s excellent presentations on LTCI fraud at the 2025 Intercompany LTC Insurance Conference last March pointed the direction for our research. Executive Chairman Peter Goldstein encouraged our study and Jeffrey Ferrand, Vice President of Fraud Services at illumifin, provided helpful advice and suggestions. We thank the company and its officials for the path-breaking work they’ve done to identify, prevent, and prosecute the various forms of fraud confronting the long-term care insurance industry. ***
 

LTC BULLET: LONG-TERM CARE FRAUD

LTC Comment: Today, the Center for Long-Term Care Reform published a new report titled “Long-Term Care Fraud.” Its “Executive Summary” and “Conclusion” follow below but you can check out the complete report here.

Long-Term Care Fraud

by
Stephen A. Moses
July 23, 2026

Executive Summary

Health care fraud is large already and growing rapidly. Long-term care (LTC), vital because of America’s aging population, is especially susceptible to fraud. Government or corporate third parties finance most LTC which creates a moral hazard by facilitating fraud and reducing its risk. Individuals, naturally averse to fraud, fund much less LTC out of their own pockets. Most LTC is delivered in private homes without supervision inviting fraudulent billings. We know the incidence and cost of fraud in private LTC insurance. But there is no published measure of LTC fraud in the public sector. Medicaid and Medicare present special problems that make LTC fraud identification, processing and prosecution exceptionally difficult. The Trump administration has undertaken a major push to reduce public sector health care fraud. Private sector advances to control LTC fraud could help reduce obstacles on the public side. A key is prioritization, focusing on cases most likely to produce results. This paper examines LTC fraud in both sectors and recommends measures to curtail its growth and impact.

Conclusion

LTC fraud is inevitable in a health care system that relies heavily on third-party payment, limited supervision, and complicated public administration. As demand for LTC grows with population aging, the chances for phantom billing, upcoding, identity abuse, and organized fraud expand unless payers respond more aggressively. Private LTC insurers have identified and reduced fraud by using targeted investigation, risk scoring, and early intervention instead of waiting to recover losses after the fact. Public programs, especially Medicaid and Medicare, face greater barriers, but they could employ the most effective private-sector practices more aggressively. Focus on high-risk claims; use data analytics to stop suspicious payments earlier; and prioritize cases with the greatest return on investigative effort. In a system where most LTC spending comes from third parties, fraud control will always depend on incentives. Replacing Medicaid’s wide open federal funds matching system with capped block grants would encourage states to focus more vigorously on fraud control. Absent the temptation of unlimited federal revenue, state Medicaid programs would more effectively protect vulnerable recipients, preserve public funds, and maintain trust in long-term care.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, July 20, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-025:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • HSAs undertapped as way to save for long-term care, retirement needs, survey finds

  • Violence repeatedly erupts in dementia care despite warnings, inspections show

  • My mom's long-term care has cost almost $400,000. This is after we spent $45,000 converting a guest house on our property for her

  • New study quantifies the annual cost of dementia at $818 billion, with families picking up most of the tab

  • [UPDATED] CMS to reward higher-performing nursing homes with ‘streamlined’ reviews, favorable online icon

  • Five Key Facts About Spending and Enrollment for People with Medicare and Medicaid (Dual-Eligible Individuals)

  • Report offers roadmap for future-proofing care for older adults

  • Alzheimer’s Association starts $100M trial to evaluate impact of GLP-1s on cognitive decline

  • Baby boomers retiring with record mortgage, credit card debt

  • Improving Access to Medicare Home Health Care: Key Policy Considerations 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, July 13, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-024:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • A New Option for Long-Term Care Costs

  • US adult obesity rate rose from 30% to 41% between 1999 and 2023, study finds

  • It’s Time To Reform How The Federal Government Funds State Medicaid Programs

  • Genworth CEO McInerney takes health leave as CFO Upton steps in

  • New tool helps providers, others estimate how long someone will be able to afford assisted living

  • Collateral damage: Medicaid work rules threaten nursing homes even if patients keep coverage

  • The families we serve are becoming the workforce we need

  • Long-Term and Assisted Care—Here’s What Medicare and Medicaid Do and Do Not Cover

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, July 10, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC Comment: If you think LTC is in trouble now, wait until the rest of the boomers hit age 65 in 2029! We explain after the ***news.***

*** Did you see all of these important LTC stories from the past few days? Probably not unless you track the industry media and academic publications full time. That’s what Steve Moses does so he can send these real time LTC Clippings to Center premium members daily.

7/8/2026, “As America Turns 250, It's Worth Celebrating Last Year's One Big Beautiful Bill,” by Brian Blase, Paragon Health Institute
Quote: “Maximizing freedom requires limiting government. Last year, Congress notched a win for freedom with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), or the Working Families Tax Cut Act. Although the cornerstone of the legislation was its provisions that lowered taxes, the legislation also expanded freedom by taking steps to reduce the tide of red ink emanating from federal health care programs, whose unsustainable growth poses one of the greatest threats to America’s long-term prosperity.”
LTC Comment: Have you seen the relentless media criticism of last year’s budget reconciliation law? Read this excellent summary of the OBBBA’s impact on government health care spending for a more accurate and objective analysis.

7/7/2026, “The Aging Population Is Changing States’ Revenue, Spending, and Service Demand Outlook,” PEW
Quote: “The United States’ population is aging rapidly. And as with other long-term shifts in social and economic conditions, the transition to an older population is already affecting state revenue and expenditures. Understanding and preparing for these ongoing changes will be critical to states’ future fiscal sustainability.”
LTC Comment: Read this report to learn now states are already in a world of fiscal hurt due to population aging. Then contemplate how much worse it will be without the ongoing federal Medicaid matching funds bonanza as new limits on the use of provider taxes, intergovernmental transfers, and state-directed payments take effect. No amount of planning will shield states from what’s coming. Expect less government help for LTC, not more.

If you’re not already a member of the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, join here. Check out our “Membership Levels and Benefits” for all the individual and corporate membership options. Join our campaign to ensure quality long-term care for all Americans. ***
 

LTC BULLET: HOW MUCH WORSE CAN LONG-TERM CARE GET?

LTC Comment: U.S. long-term care (LTC) is in a world of hurt. The symptoms are well known: access and quality problems, caregiver shortages, excessive reliance on unpaid family caregivers, exploding public costs, and so on. Bad as it is, however, evidence suggests it could, and likely will, get much worse.

Two articles in the current issue of Health Affairs support that discouraging conclusion. “National Health Expenditure Projections, 2025–34: Strong Utilization Growth Initially, Legislative Impacts Later” tells us that the key components of LTC spending will grow annually on average from 2025 to 2034 by the following percentages arriving at total spending across all payers in billions of dollars as follows: 

Nursing care facilities and continuing care retirement communities: 4.4%, $338.3
Home health care: 8.1%, $367.8
Other health, residential, and personal care: 6.7%, $615.0

OK, that’s bad enough considering the 2024 numbers for the nursing homes, home health and other categories were only $219.9, $169.4 and $320.5, respectively. But consider how much worse LTC spending could get if the insights from the other Health Affairs article are not adequately reflected in these estimates.    

According to “Trends In Care Needs Among Older US Adults Diverged By Age, 2011–22,” a new cohort of markedly more unhealthy baby boomers is about to throw current expectations about LTC utilization and spending into a cocked hat.

For starters, consider the status quo: “Nearly half of older adults in the United States experience disability, often defined in later life as limitations with daily activities … .” (p. 790)  Half have ADL deficiencies? Already? That’s alarming enough. But consider what’s coming according to the “trends” article.

Among younger baby boomers, “swelling numbers” are living with ADL limitations, receiving paid care, and experiencing unmet care needs. Among older age groups, however, there were declines in care received in all settings without increases in unmet care needs. Overall, averaging the younger and older cohorts, trends for the 65 and older population appeared stable with half having ADL deficiencies.

But that current stability is misleading. This study only analyzed the front half of the baby boom generation. Future studies will address all the baby boomers and will not be balanced by the better health and LTC characteristics among the older cohort in the current study.

The trend article authors conclude “the sizable rise in the numbers of adults ages 65–74 with activity limitations (an additional five and a half million), receiving care (an additional three million), and with unmet care needs (an additional two million) over a relatively short period is sobering.” (p. 796)

“Sobering” is an understatement. America’s over 85 age population will triple by 2050 dramatically increasing the number needing LTC. The article therefore concludes:

Taken together, study findings point to continued swelling in the numbers of older adults with care needs as the second half of this generation reaches later life. They also suggest that the share of older adults with care needs, which has been flat for more than two decades, may soon begin to rise. (p. 796)

From its beginning in 1946, the baby boom generation dramatically transformed American society, culture and economy. It’s about to shake up LTC services and spending commensurately. The first tranche of baby boomers has more ADL limitations, requires more paid care, and has more unmet LTC needs than previous generations. Add in the younger boomers with LTC characteristics as bad or worse and we can expect the LTC service delivery and funding challenge to worsen radically.

So, what is to be done? Do either of the Health Affairs articles offer helpful suggestions? Alas, no. The projections article concludes “policy makers will undoubtedly continue to explore options for addressing the significant financing challenges for a sector that is expected to account for more than one-fifth of the economy by 2034.” (p. 732) Want to hang our hopes on policy makers finding a better funding source?

The trends article is no more helpful. “Study findings reinforce the need for robust policies, including innovations in workforce development and family supports, to address the growing care needs of older adults and their families.” (p. 797) Where will the money come from to reinforce robust policies? That’s typical doubletalk.

What these articles have in common with most others of their ilk is that they analyze symptoms and recommend solutions, but never ask why LTC is so dysfunctional in the first place. With no idea of the source of LTC’s many problems, such analysts have nowhere to go with their recommendations than to call for more government spending and regulation.

For an entirely different approach that addresses the cause of LTC problems first and then proposes solutions, read the Paragon Health Institute’s “Long-Term Care: The Problem” and “Long-Term Care: The Solution” and watch this “virtual LTC event” featuring age wave visionary Ken Dychtwald and leading LTC researchers. To find ample private funds for LTC, check out “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak.” For what not to do, see “Medi-Cal-amity: California’s Reckless Expansion of Medicaid Long-Term Care to the Affluent.” See also “Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less.” Much more on long-term care here.

#############################

Updated Monday, July 6, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-023:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Data detail extent of senior living and care provider reliance on immigrant workers

  • Sector challenges, skilled nursing turnover present opportunity for first-time entrepreneurs, ‘innovators’

  • BREAKING: CMS unveils aggressive plan to fine, more easily expel noncompliant Medicare providers

  • Lear's age of suffering

  • Nearly Four Million Medicare Beneficiaries Met the Eligibility Criteria in 2023 for the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge

  • Medicare Advantage by Default

  • Medicaid HCBS growing, but worker wages falling, new study finds 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, June 29, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-022:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • John O’Connor and McKnight’s: A 36-year run like no other

  • ‘Confounding and heartbreaking’: Provider groups decry Supreme Court decision that could see the departure of immigrant workers

  • National Health Expenditure Projections, 2025–34: Strong Utilization Growth Initially, Legislative Impacts Later

  • Testimony of Bill Hammond on Medicaid’s Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program

  • Protecting Patients and Taxpayers: Combating Healthcare Fraud and Leakage to Strengthen Program Integrity

  • What Surprises Aging Guru Ken Dychtwald

  • Americans Fear Navigating Long-Term Care Alone More Than Affording It

  • I quit my job to care for my sick husband. A little-known program provided training and pays me to do it

  • Political Insights from the 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees’ Reports 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, June 26, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: LTC HOAX?

LTC Comment: The media and researchers constantly misrepresent Medicaid LTC spend down. Is it a genuine misunderstanding, a deliberate hoax, or something else? Answers after the ***news.***

*** TODAY'S LTC BULLET is sponsored by Claude Thau (BackNine Insurance). BackNine gives you a free personalized website at no cost. Your clients (& family & friends) can, with as little or as much of your involvement as you or they want, buy life insurance and LTCi, and can speed issue by scheduling a paramed and uploading medical records immediately. We quote stand-alone LTCi, linked-benefit and life with a LTC rider side-by-side. Claude is the lead author of Milliman’s annual Broker World LTCi Survey & a past Chair of the Center for Long-Term Care Financing. Contact him at 913-707-8863 or claude@back9ins.com to learn about more great BackNine features and services. ***

*** CASE IN POINT: Here’s the LTC Hoax in action. I penned the following letter to the editor of Health Affairs about an article the journal published that gets Medicaid LTC financial eligibility wrong. Of course, my letter wasn’t published. Here’s why. Peer review is like a moat protecting the LTC Narrative that government is the solution to all LTC problems

Letter to the editor of Health Affairs regarding “Medicaid Asset Limits And Enrollment Among Older Adults And People With Disabilities” (https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2025.01437)

This article on Medicaid asset limits displays a misunderstanding of Medicaid’s purpose and operation in long-term care (LTC). Medicaid is not designed to promote savings or minimize enrollment barriers; it is a safety net intended for those who lack the means to pay for necessary care. To evaluate it through the lens of enrollment friction obscures its core function.

The authors focus on nominal asset limits, yet these limits are often circumvented in practice. Applicants can convert countable assets into exempt forms—such as home equity, personal property, or prepaid funeral expenses—allowing individuals with substantial wealth to qualify. Similarly, income eligibility rules permit high-income individuals to qualify once private medical expenses are deducted. As a result, Medicaid LTC eligibility often extends well beyond the truly needy.

The article’s empirical findings—that some individuals who exceed asset thresholds are less likely to enroll—are unsurprising and add little insight. More important is what the analysis omits: how current rules enable middle- and upper-income individuals to access publicly funded care while lower-income individuals must spend down to near-total impoverishment before qualifying.

This dynamic has broader consequences. More affluent individuals can access higher-quality providers by paying privately before transitioning to Medicaid, while providers must absorb lower reimbursement rates once that transition occurs. This strains the care system and limits resources available for the most vulnerable.

A more relevant line of inquiry would examine why individuals with substantial assets can qualify for Medicaid LTC at all, and how policy design might better align the program with its intended role as a safety net for those most in need. ***
 

LTC BULLET: LTC HOAX?

I’ve wondered for years how the actual results of Medicaid LTC spend down policy—easy access to benefits while preserving wealth—can be so radically different from the way they are presented in the media and scholarly publications, that is, catastrophic spend down for care until total impoverishment. Do the experts really not understand how Medicaid financial eligibility works? Or do they know the truth but evade the reality because it doesn’t fit their ideological proclivity toward government intervention?  Perplexed, I decided to enlist AI to help answer the question.

My Query to Gemini:

Medicaid financial eligibility rules for long-term care (LTC) benefits allow people with high incomes to qualify if their private medical or LTC expenses are commensurately high because those private expenditures are deducted from their income before the program's low income standard is applied. Likewise, high asset people can qualify because most large assets seniors own are exempt and countable assets are easily converted to exempt status by simply using them to purchase non-countable resources. Unlike the requirement for income spend down, that it be for documented private health care expenses, however, there is no such requirement for asset spend down. Asset spend down can be used to convert countable into non-countable wealth in any amount. See “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak” for details. Although this is true and indisputable, the conventional wisdom repeated constantly in the media and often in scholarly sources is that Medicaid LTC eligibility requires "impoverishment" and that people all across America are spending down into destitution for LTC before they qualify for Medicaid. Please give me a dozen or more examples of media or academic sources that say Medicaid LTC eligibility requires impoverishment. Then opine on why this mismatch between the reality and the reporting persists decade after decade.

Gemini’s Answer:

You’ve identified a significant gap between the technical reality of Medicaid planning and the "impoverishment" narrative that dominates public discourse. Technically, the "spend down" for assets does not require destitution in the way it is often portrayed. Strategies like Medicaid Compliant Annuities, Caregiver Agreements, and Equity-to-Exempt transfers allow for the preservation of significant wealth. However, the media and academic framing consistently emphasize a binary choice: pay out-of-pocket until broke, or qualify for Medicaid only after reaching rock bottom.

Below are 12+ examples of this narrative across mainstream media, advocacy groups, and academic contexts.

Media & Journalism

These sources often frame Medicaid LTC as a "safety net for the destitute," frequently omitting the legal mechanisms used to protect assets.

  • AP News (2026): "Deliberately putting yourself or a relative into poverty so Medicaid picks up the costs... Assistive living and nursing home care often force families to exhaust their resources before qualifying." — A Medicaid ‘spend down’ may get an older person LTC coverage.
  • The New York Times (2023): In various "Your Money" and "The New Old Age" columns, the narrative often focuses on the "catastrophic" cost of care that "drains life savings" to reach the $2,000 asset limit. Has referred to the "Catch-22" of Medicaid where seniors must "spend down until they are virtually penniless."
  • CNBC (2024): Business reporting frequently highlights that Americans are "forced to spend down into poverty" to access long-term care benefits.
  • KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation): While technically accurate on rules, their public briefs often headline the "limited financial resources" and "low-income" nature of beneficiaries as a prerequisite.
  • The Washington Post: Often features op-eds or "Health & Science" features describing the "vicious cycle of spending down every last cent" to qualify for nursing home coverage. Reports on families "spending down to the bone" to meet the $2,000 asset limit.
  • Forbes: While some articles discuss "Medicaid planning," many general finance columns warn that LTC requires you to "impoverish yourself" to let the government take over.
  • The Wall Street Journal: Often describes the "cruel choice" of "emptying the bank account" to qualify for government help with long-term care.
  • NPR: Features stories on the "exhausting process" of "becoming poor enough" to get Medicaid coverage for a spouse.
  • PBS NewsHour: Has framed segments on long-term care around the idea that Americans must "become destitute to get help."
  • CNBC: Articles on retirement planning frequently warn that "long-term care can impoverish you" before Medicaid kicks in.

Advocacy & Public Interest Groups

These organizations often use the "impoverishment" language to argue for better funding or policy changes.

  • AARP: Frequently publishes guides stating that to qualify for Medicaid, you must have "very little in the way of assets," reinforcing the idea that the program is only for the poor.
  • Center for Medicare Advocacy: Highlights that current rules result in the "impoverishment of older people and people with disabilities" due to the high cost of out-of-pocket care. Notes that without spousal protections, many would be "left with, literally, no income at all" and that residents are "in jeopardy" of destitution.
  • American Health Care Association (AHCA): Often refers to the Medicaid population in nursing homes as "low-income seniors" or "vulnerable residents" who have no other options.
  • Justice in Aging: Focuses on the "economic insecurity" of seniors, framing the eligibility process as a transition into poverty.
  • NCOA (National Council on Aging): Explains that "you must spend down into poverty" to qualify for the Medically Needy program in many states.

Academic & Policy Research

Even in scholarly work, the "Spend Down = Destitution" model is often the baseline assumption for policy simulation.

  • Health Affairs: Numerous articles over the decades use the term "Medicaid Spend-Down" as a synonym for the depletion of wealth by middle-class seniors. Frequently discusses the "risk of impoverishment" for those needing long-term services and supports (LTSS), framing the lack of social insurance as a path to "financial destitution."
  • Journal of the American Medical Directors Association (JAMDA): Recent studies emphasize that facilities are serving "the most impoverished communities," linking Medicaid status directly to lack of wealth.
  • The Gerontologist: Academic papers frequently explore the "psychological toll of spend-down," describing the process as one where seniors must "bankrupt themselves" to get care. Research papers often categorize the "medically needy" as those who have reached a state of "functional poverty" through medical expenses.
  • Urban Institute: Policy briefs often describe Medicaid as the program for those who have "exhausted their private resources" through the high cost of long-term services.
  • ASPE (HHS): "Asset spend-down in nursing homes is the process by which individuals... deplete their available assets... and then enroll in the Medicaid program once they are impoverished." — A Synthesis and Critique of Studies on Medicaid Asset Spenddown.
  • Milbank Quarterly: "Elderly persons with functional impairments must impoverish themselves by incurring large out-of-pocket expenditures on nursing-home care before becoming eligible for Medicaid benefits." — Long-term Care, Medicaid, and Impoverishment of the Elderly.
  • Journal of the American Geriatrics Society (JAGS): Uses the term "Medicaid-induced impoverishment" to describe the transition of middle-class seniors into the program.
  • Center for Retirement Research (Boston College): Often frames studies around the "likelihood of impoverishment" for retirees facing nursing home stays.
  • Georgetown University (LTC Financing Project): Policy briefs frequently state that Medicaid acts as a "safety net for those who have exhausted their resources."

Key Nuance: The "Myth" vs. The Narrative

There is a counter-academic movement—most notably led by Stephen A. Moses of the Center for Long-Term Care Reform—who has published extensively on "The Myth of Medicaid Spend-Down."

The Reality: While the media highlights the $2,000 asset limit, they rarely mention that a primary residence (up to ~$700k–$1M+ depending on the state), a vehicle, and irrevocable burial trusts are exempt. Additionally, "Income Spend Down" is actually a "Spend Through," where the applicant uses their income to pay their share of cost, while the government covers the rest—hardly "destitution" if the care is being provided.

The Reality vs. The Narrative

As you noted, the "indisputable" reality includes several legal avenues that prevent literal destitution, yet they are rarely the focus of general reporting:

The "Impoverishment" Narrative

The Technical Reality

"You must be penniless."

You can keep a primary residence (up to ~$713k–$1.07m equity), one car, and personal belongings.

"You must spend all money on care."

You can spend "countable" cash on "exempt" assets (e.g., home repairs, prepaying funerals, buying a better car).

"The spouse is left with nothing."

Spousal Impoverishment Rules (CSRA) allow the community spouse to keep up to ~$154,140 in assets (2024/25 levels).

"High income disqualifies you."

"Income caps" can often be bypassed via Miller Trusts (Qualified Income Trusts) in many states.

LTC Comment: Follow up: based on your findings, do you think this commonplace misrepresentation of the reality is intentional to support an ideological bias or based only on ignorance?

AI: The gap between the "impoverishment" narrative and the actual mechanics of Medicaid eligibility isn't easily reduced to just a malicious lie or just simple ignorance. Instead, it is a classic example of structural bias—where institutional complexities, media incentives, and political ideologies converge to create a distorted public perception.

If you analyze the behavior of the groups pushing this narrative, you can see a mix of well-meaning oversimplification, strategic political positioning, and commercial interest.

Here is how the motivations break down across the spectrum:

1. The Media: The "Path of Least Resistance" & Human Drama

For journalists, the misrepresentation is driven less by a deep ideological conspiracy and more by occupational constraints:

  • Complexity: Medicaid is a labyrinth of federal guidelines and 50 distinct sets of state rules. Explaining "Medically Needy" income spend-down or the mechanics of a Qualified Income Trust (Miller Trust) requires too many column inches and bores the general reader.
  • The "Unplanned" Reality: For the vast majority of middle-class families who do not hire an elder law attorney in advance, the experience feels like impoverishment. They enter a crisis (e.g., a sudden stroke), go to a nursing home, and are told they must pay $10,000/month out-of-pocket until their liquid bank accounts hit $2,000. That is the story that reaches reporters. The reporter writes about the crisis, missing the fact that a proactive lawyer could have sheltered those assets.
  • Narrative Arc: "Local senior forced into poverty by broken healthcare system" is a compelling, high-engagement headline. "Local senior successfully shifts wealth into exempt asset categories using legal loopholes" is a technical financial column.

2. Left-Leaning Academics and Policy Advocates: Supporting Universal Care

For progressive think tanks and advocates, framing Medicaid as requiring "impoverishment" serves a specific ideological goal: the expansion of the social safety net.

  • The Goal: They want a universal, Medicare-for-all-style long-term care benefit.
  • The Strategy: To build political will for universal care, you must convince the middle class that they too are at risk. If the middle class believes they can easily navigate Medicaid rules to protect their inheritances, they won't vote for expensive new government programs. By highlighting the $2,000 asset limit and framing it as "destitution," they create pressure for systemic reform.

3. Right-Leaning/Fiscal Conservative Groups: Highlighting Welfare Abuse

Conversely, some conservative groups actually agree with your premise—that Medicaid is easily manipulated—but they use it to argue for stricter asset recovery and tighter rules:

  • They argue that middle-class or wealthy seniors are "crowding out" the truly poor by hiding wealth in exempt assets (like high-value homes or annuities).
  • However, when these groups write public-facing warnings, they often emphasize the "harshness" of the rules to discourage people from relying on Medicaid, unintentionally reinforcing the narrative that the program is punitive.

4. The Elder Law and Long-Term Care Insurance Industries

There is a massive commercial incentive to keep the "impoverishment" narrative alive:

  • Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) Companies: To sell a policy, they must terrify you. Their marketing materials constantly declare: "A nursing home will wipe out your life savings and leave you destitute!" They rarely mention that a good attorney can shelter your assets without their insurance.
  • Elder Law Attorneys: Ironically, even though these lawyers specialize in proving Medicaid doesn't require destitution, their marketing often leads with the threat of impoverishment to get clients through the door: "Don't let the nursing home take your house!"

Summary: Ignorance Filtered Through Incentives

The Verdict: It is rarely pure, conscious ignorance, but rather strategic framing.

Every player in the ecosystem has a reason to emphasize the "scary" $2,000 cash limit rather than the "lenient" exempt asset rules:

  • Advocates want to show the system is cruel so it will be changed.
  • Journalists want a dramatic story about human suffering.
  • Businesses want to sell you a product (insurance or legal services) to protect you from that cruelty.

The legal reality you pointed out—that a senior can buy a $500,000 exempt home, buy a brand new car, pay off a mortgage, and prepay funerals to qualify for Medicaid—is an open secret among lawyers, but a deeply inconvenient truth for almost every major narrative or commercial interest in the space.

Closing LTC Comment: Well, there you have it. Misrepresenting Medicaid financial eligibility policy to suggest it requires spend down into impoverishment is not a hoax (deliberate deceit) according to AI, but only different groups pursuing their self-interests. Smooth, I say. That lets everyone off the hook of thinking about what would be better public policy. Maybe you can excuse senior advocates and business enterprises for pursuing their narrow interests. But should we exonerate Medicaid planners who manipulate the rules to help affluent clients for big fees at the expense of the genuinely needy? Should scholars who ought to pursue objective truth get a pass? No, I think the term “LTC Hoax” applies accurately to them. They allow a self-serving lie to take precedence over truthful analysis in pursuit of better public policy.

To make sense of what ails LTC, read the Paragon Health Institute’s “Long-Term Care: The Problem” and “Long-Term Care: The Solution” and watch this “virtual LTC event” featuring age wave visionary Ken Dychtwald and leading LTC researchers. To find ample private funds for LTC, check out “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak.” For what not to do, see “Medi-Cal-amity: California’s Reckless Expansion of Medicaid Long-Term Care to the Affluent.” See also “Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less.” Find much more on long-term care here.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, June 22, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-021:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • What is Socialism?

  • ‘Will I spend my 50s or 60s as a caregiver?’: A woman in an age-gap relationship started doing 'grief math' — and it exposed a financial blind spot

  • Senior living communities charging more for the room, less for the care

  • 5 Contentious Reasons the Middle Class Hasn't Bought Long-Term Care Insurance

  • Social Security Is In Far Worse Shape Than We're Being Told: The System's $71.9 Trillion Unfunded Liability Is Over Twice What its ‘Trustees’ Mention

  • Spending on Medicaid State Directed Payments Before New Limits Take Effect

  • Federal Medicaid Spending Through State Directed Payments Nears $100 Billion Annually Across 41 States, With New Limits Set to Reduce Funding to States

  • Senior living industry backs new CMS Medicaid waiver oversight rules

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, June 15, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-020:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • A New Option for Long-Term Care Costs

  • Advisors Aren't Ready For The 30-Year Retirement, Ken Dychtwald Argues

  • Medicare Advantage Organizations overturned most SNF denials, OIG finds

  • The Nation's Fiscal Health: Urgent and Sustained Action Needed to Improve the Fiscal Outlook

  • What’s in the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report?

  • Social Security funds could run short by 2032, program's Trustees warn

  • A Closer Look at the IRS LTC Guidance

  • What to Know About Recent Federal Actions Involving State Medicaid Program Integrity

  • Ohio suspends 49 home health providers from Medicaid program over fraud concerns

  • Long-term care reform plans spark widespread backlash in Germany 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, June 12, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: WHAT IS MEDICAID FOR?

LTC Comment: These scholars publishing in a peer-reviewed journal do not understand Medicaid’s purpose, nor how it hurts the poor and helps the well-to-do. We explain after the ***news.***

*** Share Your Working Caregiver Story

CareScout and Genworth, in partnership with Share More Stories, are inviting working caregivers to participate in a storytelling-based research project focused on the real experience of balancing work and caregiving.

By sharing an audio or written story through the SEEQ platform, caregivers can help deepen understanding of the emotional and practical realities they face, and contribute to more effective support(s) in the future.

Eligible participants receive a $25 gift card.

Learn more and participate: https://sharemorestories.com/working-caregiver-experience-carescout-seeq/ ***
 

LTC BULLET: WHAT IS MEDICAID FOR?

LTC Comment: The following article in the current issue of Health Affairs is a confused mishmash of mistaken notions that never should have passed peer review. The complete piece does not deserve your attention, but the abstract is worth our brief scrutiny. It displays the confusion, common among Medicaid LTC researchers, regarding the Medicaid program, its legitimate purpose and how it diverges in practice from official objectives. Here’s the article, its abstract, and our line-by-line review.

Medicaid Asset Limits and Enrollment Among Older Adults and People With Disabilities,” by Andrew Anderson, Chau Huynh, and Catherine K. Ettman, Health Affairs, 45, NO. 6 (2026): 708–715.

ABSTRACT Medicaid asset limits determine how many countable resources older adults and people with disabilities may retain while qualifying for coverage. Although intended to target benefits to those with the greatest financial need, these rules may discourage saving and create administrative barriers to enrollment. Amid recent federal and state reforms to update asset limits and a new federal home equity cap of $1 million taking effect in 2028, we examined how many income-eligible older and disabled adults are affected by Medicaid asset limits and whether exceeding these limits is associated with lower enrollment. Using nationally representative data for 2023, we estimated that among 6.2 million income-eligible adults not enrolled in Medicaid, 1.5 million (24.7 percent) exceeded their state’s financial asset limit and 387,525 (8.6 percent) exceeded the home equity limit. Regression discontinuity models indicated that exceeding financial asset thresholds was associated with lower enrollment among unmarried adults. Asset limits thus exclude a modest share of otherwise-income eligible people overall but may disproportionately burden subgroups with limited financial resources.

LTC Comment: Let’s dissect this abstract sentence by sentence to see if we can make sense of it, or at least explain what it gets wrong.

Abstract: “Medicaid asset limits determine how many countable resources older adults and people with disabilities may retain while qualifying for coverage.”

LTC Comment: This is true and the limit on countable resources is usually very low, often $2,000. But the official limit is irrelevant because there is no cap on how much countable wealth applicants can convert to non-countable status simply by purchasing exempt assets. Pay off a mortgage or add a room to increase home equity, buy a nicer car, prepay funeral expenses, purchase expensive new personal and household belongings, acquire a business or rental property, and so on. There is practically no limit to how much wealth the affluent can shelter and retain in this way. See “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak for details.”

Abstract: “Although intended to target benefits to those with the greatest financial need, these rules may discourage saving and create administrative barriers to enrollment.”

LTC Comment: What a peculiar notion. The purpose of Medicaid is not to encourage savings or avoid administrative barriers to enrollment. It is to provide a financially viable safety net of LTC services for people who have failed to save and have become a financial and administrative burden on the state. Medicaid should target benefits to those most in need and exclude others of lesser or no need. These authors have Medicaid’s role upside down and backwards.

Abstract: “Amid recent federal and state reforms to update asset limits and a new federal home equity cap of $1 million taking effect in 2028, we examined how many income-eligible older and disabled adults are affected by Medicaid asset limits and whether exceeding these limits is associated with lower enrollment.”

LTC Comment: What kind of question is that? If exceeding asset limits is not associated with lower enrollment, something is obviously wrong. Otherwise, why set limits on assets in the first place? Regarding the million dollar home equity limit, it prevents very few people from qualifying for Medicaid LTC benefits because the median home equity of elderly Americans, $250,000, is only one-fourth of that amount. A better research question would be: how many people with home equity approaching a million dollars receive welfare-financed Medicaid benefits and why is that allowed?

Abstract: “Using nationally representative data for 2023, we estimated that among 6.2 million income-eligible adults not enrolled in Medicaid, 1.5 million (24.7 percent) exceeded their state’s financial asset limit and 387,525 (8.6 percent) exceeded the home equity limit.”

LTC Comment: Yes, and so, what’s their point? Affluent people don’t qualify for Medicaid LTC benefits? If it were only that simple! These authors do not understand how Medicaid LTC eligibility works in the real world. Forget the low income and asset caps. What really happens is that income can be very high because private health expenses are deducted before the low cap is applied. Consequently, someone with $10,000 a month of income who has a nursing home bill of comparable size is eligible based on income. Nor are their assets actually limited because countable wealth is easily converted to exempt resources as explained above.

Abstract: “Regression discontinuity models indicated that exceeding financial asset thresholds was associated with lower enrollment among unmarried adults.”

LTC Comment: Do they really need fancy econometric models to discover that capping income and assets excludes some people from eligibility? The resulting inequity is much worse than these authors grasp as explained below.

Abstract:  “Asset limits thus exclude a modest share of otherwise-income eligible people overall but may disproportionately burden subgroups with limited financial resources.”

LTC Comment: Well, yes, of course. And who do you think are the subgroups with limited financial resources who are excluded? Answer. The poor, whom Medicaid was supposed to help first. Private nursing home or home health expenses quickly consume the limited resources of financially vulnerable people leaving them totally impoverished. The middle class and affluent, on the other hand, who should not rely on public welfare, are able to qualify for Medicaid LTC benefits using the methods just described and others, such as irrevocable income-only trusts. Even worse, these more financially able people co-opt the best care Medicaid offers because they can afford to pay privately for a time before they switch to Medicaid. That is because the best nursing homes and home health agencies compete for private residents who pay 150% of the Medicaid rate on average. After the financially comfortable make the switch to Medicaid, state and federal laws prohibit their being discharged simply because their source of payment changes. LTC providers get stuck with the new low-revenue from formally private-pay Medicaid recipients. This inhibits their ability to pay caregivers adequately and to provide quality care.

Closing LTC Comment: Is it clear now what is really going on? Instead of a safety net for the poor, Medicaid forces the most vulnerable, least financially solvent people to impoverish themselves. But the middle class and affluent not only qualify quickly but they get the best care available through Medicaid. Worse yet, instead of paying privately at market rates for their care, which would contribute desperately needed revenue to the service delivery system, these previously private-pay residents generate only 70% of the private pay rate as Medicaid recipients. On top of everything, this system effectively desensitizes most Americans to LTC risk and cost leaving them uninsured and dependent on public assistance when their need arises. How different this reality is from the confused Health Affairs hodgepodge!

#############################

 

Updated Monday, June 8, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-019:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • What This Year's Biggest Medicare Changes Mean for You

  • Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023

  • End-of-life costs at least 50 percent higher for adults younger than 65, study finds

  • DHS: Only 2,000 of 5,600 high-risk Medicaid providers revalidated upon review

  • How to Help Regular Clients Handle Long-Term Care Costs

  • Immigration bans expected to lead to healthcare workforce shortages, researchers say

  • Why 1035 Exchanges Are Becoming a Bigger Part of LTC Planning Conversations

  • We couldn't afford to pay for my mom's dementia assisted living anymore. She moved into a tiny house next door to me

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, June 1, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-018:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Sticker Shock In Seattle Over WA Cares' $36,500 Lifeline

  • IRS Guidance Shines Light on Post-SECURE 2.0 Long-Term Care Distributions

  • The growing long-term care dilemma

  • Senior living and care increasingly bifurcated, with no room for the middle, experts say

  • Key Facts About Health Care Affordability for People With Medicare

  • Proposed legislation signals broader trends senior living providers should be watching, experts say

  • Annuities May Help Clients Live Longer: Study

  • Senators call for new Medicare benefit for home care, more Medicaid HCBS funding

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, May 29, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: AN OPEN INVITATION TO LTC FRAUD

LTC Comment: Government’s good intentions opened the flood gates for LTC fraud. We explain after the ***news.***

*** TODAY'S LTC BULLET is sponsored by Claude Thau (BackNine Insurance). BackNine gives you a free personalized website at no cost. Your clients (& family & friends) can, with as little or as much of your involvement as you or they want, buy life insurance and LTCi, and can speed issue by scheduling a paramed and uploading medical records immediately. We quote stand-alone LTCi, linked-benefit and life with a LTC rider side-by-side. Claude is the lead author of Milliman’s annual Broker World LTCi Survey & a past Chair of the Center for Long-Term Care Financing. Contact him at 913-707-8863 or claude@back9ins.com to learn about more great BackNine features and services. ***

*** LTC CLIPPINGS notify Center premium members of news and analysis in real time. Steve Moses scans the media and academic journals; he picks the most important news and analysis to keep you at the professional forefront; and he gives you the source, a representative quote, and his brief analysis. A couple examples follow. Find our “Membership Levels and Benefits Schedule” here. Join the Center and become a premium member here. Or contact damon@centerltc.com for details.

5/27/2026, “Key Facts About Health Care Affordability for People With Medicare,” by Nancy Ochieng, Meredith Freed, Juliette Cubanski, Jeannie Fuglesten Biniek, and Tricia Neuman, KFF
Quote: “Long-term services and supports, which are not covered by Medicare, are unaffordable for all but the highest-income Medicare beneficiaries. In 2025, the median annual costs of common long-term services and supports in the U.S were $80,080 for full-time non-medical caregiver services (including home health aide and homemaker services for people who need help with instrumental activities of daily living such as preparing meals and doing laundry), $129,575 for a private room in a nursing home, and $305,760 for round-the-clock home health aide services (Figure 9). These costs greatly surpass median income ($43,200) and savings ($110,100) among people with Medicare. Long-term care services are generally not covered by Medicare, regardless of whether a beneficiary is enrolled in traditional Medicare or Medicare Advantage.”
LTC Comment: Every few years, KFF publishes a version of this message saying that Medicare beneficiaries are too poor to afford LTC. You’re supposed to conclude that LTC costs devastate people on Medicare who need extended care that Medicare does not cover. The truth is that Medicaid pays the catastrophic LTC costs of Medicare beneficiaries who have the need. We explained how this works in two LTC Bullets: Hoist with its Own Petard and KFF Hoisted Again. Read them for relief from KFF’s dystopian views and for ideas on how to fix LTC financing without adding it to Medicare.

5/26/2026, “Senators call for new Medicare benefit for home care, more Medicaid HCBS funding,” by John Roszkowski, McKnights Home Care
Quote: “A group of Democratic United States senators last week expressed the need for a new Medicare benefit for in-home care and expanded Medicaid funding for home- and community-based services as part of a larger plan to increase funding for long-term care services.”
LTC Comment: First, float the Titanic (Medicare) before adding more deck chairs (LTC benefits). ***


LTC BULLET: AN OPEN INVITATION TO LTC FRAUD

LTC Comment: Health care fraud is all over the news lately. Medicaid and Medicare are the fraudsters’ favorite targets. Medicaid LTC is especially vulnerable because most of it (87.1% at latest count) is provided in unsupervised home and community-based settings. That makes billing for undelivered services and other fraudulent measures tempting, easy and hard to catch.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is fighting a rearguard action to rein in health care fraud. The Administration’s Comprehensive Regulations to Uncover Suspicious Healthcare (CRUSH) initiative and a Task Force to Eliminate Fraud aim to curtail fraud in CMS programs estimated to cost $100 billion per year. Some say these measures are too little, too late. Why hasn’t the government fought fraud more aggressively up to now?

Efforts to fight fraud in public benefit programs face many obstacles. The huge volume of transactions; legal limits on the government’s ability to exclude questionable providers, and sluggish public sector implementation of technological advances, all impede progress against fraud. Third parties, especially Medicaid and Medicare, fund most health care, including LTC, which creates a moral hazard that invites fraud. The gigantic size of government health care programs and the fragmentation between programs and between federal and state-level funding and administration of Medicaid impair fraud identification and control.

All these factors contribute, but the biggest obstacle to public sector fraud control comes from legal constraints. Medicaid and Medicare were created in 1965 as part of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society war on poverty. The new programs entitled people to a wide range of medical and LTC services. After enactment, their costs exploded immediately. State and federal efforts to control costs led to litigation aimed at protecting the public’s access to the new entitlements. Two major court cases addressed this issue.

In Goldberg v. Kelly [1970], the Supreme Court ruled that before the government can terminate an individual’s statutory entitlement like welfare or health benefits, it must provide a pre-termination hearing. This means if the government suspects fraudulent billing or ineligibility in Medicaid, it cannot simply stop payments immediately. It must give the recipient notice and an opportunity to be heard, making swift fraud intervention administratively burdensome. Consequently, nearly all government fraud control must be done using a “pay and chase” approach as opposed to preventing fraudulent payments before they occur.

A second court case moderated Goldberg’s highly constrictive decision. In Mathews v. Eldridge, [1976] the Court set a balancing test that agencies use to determine if a pre-termination hearing is mandatory. It requires reviewing: (1) the individual's private interest in uninterrupted benefits, (2) the risk of erroneous deprivation, and (3) the government's interest, including fiscal and administrative burdens. Thus, Mathews allowed the termination of Social Security Disability benefits without a prior hearing. The Court reasoned that disability determinations rely on objective medical evidence (unlike the subjective, need-based criteria in Goldberg). Disabled workers were deemed less likely to face immediate, life-threatening destitution than welfare recipients, making retroactive post-termination payments an acceptable remedy if the government is proven wrong.

These precedents show that fighting fraud is not a simple cut-and-dry process for the government. Because Medicaid and Medicare provide life-saving health care and are treated as protected property rights, the government faces strict constitutional (due process) constraints on how it halts patient benefits or revokes provider billing privileges. Agencies must establish extensive, time-consuming administrative protocols to minimize the risk of wrongly targeting innocent recipients, which slows down their ability to stop illegitimate payments.

Modern agencies struggle to maintain accurate decision-making while dealing with millions of claims. The tension between providing "court-like" procedures and managing immense administrative systems frequently pushes federal programs into an operational crisis. Administrative safeguards have created a decade-long appeals backlog. This delay causes immense economic pressure on care providers, even though many are eventually cleared of wrongdoing. Constitutional due process requirements directly collide with available agency funding, IT systems, and personnel. 

There is a tension between the Goldberg requirement for extensive pre-termination hearings and the practical need for Medicaid Fraud Control Units (MFCUs) to make immediate, summary suspensions to halt fraudulent billing. The mandatory continuation of HCBS benefits pending an administrative appeal allows unscrupulous providers and ineligible beneficiaries to continue receiving funds, draining agency resources while lengthy fraud investigations conclude. Goldberg v. Kelly’s strict pre-termination hearing requirements—paired with the Eldridge balancing test—impair state efforts to combat fraud, overbilling, and abuse in Home and Community-Based Services (HCBS) programs.

Bottom line, what began as the government’s intention to help people obtain health and long-term care has deteriorated into an open invitation for criminals to profit from the public largesse. This outcome is only one example of a larger problem. When government replaces personal responsibility and initiative with a legally enforceable right to publicly funded benefits, all kinds of negative consequences occur. People thus “protected” are less likely to recognize, evaluate and prepare privately for life’s many risks. This leaves them dependent on and vulnerable to whatever promises government has made. The sad irony is that after decades of the U.S. government promising Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the American public is unprotected today against the increasingly likely retrenchment of those programs. When that happens, the unenforceable assurances from court cases like Goldberg v. Kelly and Mathews v. Eldridge will be cold comfort.

#############################

 

Updated Tuesday, May 26, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-017:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • 9 million older adults are missing out on $58 billion in help with food, medicine, daily costs

  • Reed: Can these assets be saved?

  • Guaranteed income streams better predictor of retirement stability than assets

  • Senate Democrats Vow To Develop A Long-Term Care Reform Plan

  • Policyholders Who Sold Their Life Insurance Received Nearly 9x More Than Insurers Offered In 2025

  • IRS Starts to Implement a Long-Term Care Insurance Tax Incentive

  • Call for public consultation on Global Standards for Long-Term Care

  • Fixing long-term care coverage

  • Long-Term Care Claimant Was Working Full Time in Demolition, Transamerica Says

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, May 18, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-016:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • AARP report says state of assisted living sector is ‘cause for concern,’ but industry says it helps residents ‘live well’

  • My dad's dementia care costs $9,000 a month. I'm selling my parents' home to pay for it

  • White House cuts $1.3 billion in Medicaid payments to California

  • Medicare’s 6-month enrollment freeze on home health and hospice: What senior living providers need to know

  • Genworth's CareScout Unit Gets a Line in the Financial Report

  • Eighth Circuit hands Unum a clean win on long-term-care denial

  • [Updated] CMS issues six-month moratorium on new hospices, home health agencies nationwide

  • Housing costs affect older adults’ ability to pay for assisted living, and here’s where costs hit hardest

  • State Reverses Managed Medicaid for Nursing Homes After $91M Cost Spike in First Year

  • New ‘economic architecture’ needed for aging population, report says

  • Financial Shocks, Caregiving Gaps and Inflation Pressures Persist For Retirees

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, May 15, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: PROTECTING WHAT MATTERS

LTC Comment: Today’s LTC Bullet is a shout out to LTC insurance maven and radio-talk-show host Barry Fisher along with a link to our latest online conversation, after the ***news.***

*** CRUSH FRAUD—Dominating the LTC financing news this week is the federal government’s growing effort to identify, discourage and prosecute health care fraud. Medicaid-funded home care services are especially susceptible to fraud because of the inherent difficulty of measuring and monitoring them. LTC Clippings recently highlighted some of the fraud news. Examples follow. If you don’t have a subscription to LTC Clippings, contact damon@centerltc.com or call 206-283-7036. Premium Center members receive all Center publications including the bi-weekly LTC Bullets, weekly LTC E-Alerts, and daily LTC Clippings. For all membership options, check out the Center’s “Membership Levels and Benefits Schedule.”

5/13/2026, “White House cuts $1.3 billion in Medicaid payments to California,” by Robert King, Politico
Quote: “The Trump administration is withholding $1.3 billion in Medicaid reimbursements to California for failing to combat fraud, escalating a feud with the state over its management of hospice care. … Though the administration has repeatedly criticized California’s fraud oversight, this is the first time the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has targeted payments to the state.”
LTC Comment: Do you think that’s excessive? Is it more important to support services freely than to be vigilant about fraud? That’s the attitude of some who criticize the current crackdown. Before you buy into the “be happy, don’t worry” dialogue, go to Paragon Health Institute, search for “California,” and read the papers that pop up. Check out Paragon’s Health Care Fraud Dashboard. And don’t miss Paragon president Brian Blase’s interview of Dr. Mehmet Oz, Administrator of CMS.

5/14/2026, “Medicare’s 6-month enrollment freeze on home health and hospice: What senior living providers need to know,” by Kimberley Bonvissuto, McKnights Senior Living
Quote: “A six-month, federal moratoria on new Medicare enrollment for home health and hospice agencies has the potential to affect a growing percentage of senior living residents, but the action has the support of senior living industry advocacy groups, provided the stoppage achieves the government’s intended goal of allowing legitimate providers to deliver quality services. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services announced the moratoria on Wednesday, effective immediately, in an effort to ‘protect Medicare beneficiaries and taxpayer dollars.’ The move will enable CMS to temporarily halt the influx of new providers into what it calls ‘high-risk categories’ for fraudulent activity.”
LTC Comment: CMS shuts down new home health and hospice activity and the industry is in favor? Sounds counterintuitive until you consider that companies currently in the business are protected from new competition entering the field. It reminds me of the impact of certificate of need laws, intended to control costs, that had the actual effect of protecting the nursing home industry from competition. Let’s hope the current moratoria have the intended effect of keeping new bad actors out of the business without unfairly benefiting current companies. ***

 

LTC BULLET: PROTECTING WHAT MATTERS

LTC Comment: Barry Fisher, of Blaze ‘n Bear Insurance Services, Inc., is a longtime friend and fellow fighter to improve long-term care. Barry’s insurance career spans more than four decades working in the field of personal financial well-being and responsibility. During most of that time he has generously provided both financial and moral support for our work at the Center for LTC Reform. With broad expertise in life, disability and long-term care insurance he works with individuals, business owners and allied professionals helping them provide protection for themselves and those they care about. Barry’s long and distinguished career prepared him uniquely to create and host a radio talk show he named “Protecting What Matters.”

“Protecting What Matters” is “the broadcast that helps you become better informed about services and products to protect various aspects of your life and property.” Topics covered are wide-ranging, but all hew to the theme of helping listeners become better, more successful consumers. Show subject matter examples include: life, disability and long-term care planning and insurance; commercial and personal property and casualty insurance; personal finance and investment; business valuation; commercial and residential lending; property rights; personal and spiritual growth; pets and animal husbandry; physical, emotional and intellectual well-being; economics; history; energy policy; taxes and legal matters; relationships; “And whatever strikes our fancy!”

Of course, a recurring theme in “Protecting What Matters” is long-term care financing, Medicaid, Medicare, and the perverse public policies that have made such a mess of that critical field. Barry brought me on to discuss LTC financing for the third time on his Tuesday, May 12, 2026 show. You can hear what we had to say here. Just scroll down until you see the Audio Player. Our section on LTC begins at 27 minutes, 24 seconds into the program.

You can enjoy past shows of Protecting What Matters on the show’s dedicated website and tune in Tuesdays at 1pm Pacific Time on KPRL 1230 AM 99.3FM or listen to the live feed here.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, May 11, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-015:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • New ASHA publication helps industry disprove senior living, home care misconceptions

  • My Beloved Husband Has Early-Stage Dementia. He Is 'Doing Well,' but How Do I Protect Our $1.6 Million Savings Right Now?

  • Rural residents less likely to receive HCBS than urban counterparts, study finds

  • Long-Term Care Costs Are Hollowing Out Generational Wealth

  • Majority Of Americans At Risk Of Outliving Their Retirement Savings

  • Study: Poor housing affordability associated with higher risks of frailty, mortality

  • Medicaid self-directed care has a fraud problem, Addus CEO says

  • What To Do About Medicaid’s Long-Term Care Benefit?

  • Family caregiving inflicts emotional, financial toll, new US News survey finds

  • The Old Guard 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, May 4, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-014:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • At the Tipping Point: Liberating a New Age of Aging

  • New Law Caps Home Equity for Medicaid Long-Term Care

  • Alzheimer’s deaths have more than doubled between 2000 and 2024, new report finds

  • The Association of Medicaid Estate Recovery with Homeownership, Home Equity, and Medicaid Enrollment

  • Kennedy’s recent comments on paid family caregivers ‘deeply concerning,’ advocates say

  • Medicaid Waste, Fraud, and Abuse: Why CMS’s Improper Payment Rate Can’t Be Trusted

  • BREAKING NEWS: CMS issues updated 2026 spousal impoverishment standards

  • The longevity revolution is here. Our systems still think we die at 65

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Friday, May 1, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


############################# 

LTC BULLET: BRIDGING LTC SILOS

LTC Comment: LTC providers and insurers communicate too little, hewing jealously to their professional bailiwicks. We try to narrow the gap after the ***news.*** 

*** LTC CLIPPINGS:  Did you catch these stories this week?  Our LTC Clippings subscribers received them in real time including Steve Moses’s always trenchant, often ironic, sometimes humorous, usually concise “LTC Comments.”  To subscribe or for a free trial, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com. Examples below:

4/28/2026, “New Law Caps Home Equity for Medicaid Long-Term Care,” by Lee Pruitt, ElderLawAnswers

Quote: “A new federal law, effective in 2028, will cap the amount of home equity a person can have and still qualify for Medicaid long-term care at $1 million. This $1 million limit will not increase with inflation, meaning more homeowners will be affected over time as property values rise. If your home equity is near or above $1 million, consult an elder law attorney now to explore options like reverse mortgages or legal transfers before the 2028 deadline.”

LTC Comment: Good advertising hook for Medicaid planners, huh? An open invitation to ignore private LTC insurance and rely on taxpayers to protect home equity from LTC risk. What’s even worse, the same Medicaid planners will tell people with less home equity and a lot of cash to convert the countable cash to exempt status by added spending on the home. After they pay the attorney’s fee first, which is also exempt. Just another example of “What’s Worse than Medicaid Fraud.”

----------------------

4/27/2026, “Medicaid Waste, Fraud, and Abuse: Why CMS’s Improper Payment Rate Can’t Be Trusted,” by Chris Medrano and Brian Blase, Paragon Health Institute

Quote: “Medicaid’s improper payment rate is widely misunderstood. PERM provides a narrow compliance estimate and is not a reliable measure of waste, fraud, abuse, or total improper payments in Medicaid. Major gaps in eligibility determinations and managed care payments make PERM incomplete. The program does not fully capture eligibility errors and fails to examine managed care payments at the provider level—despite managed care representing the majority of Medicaid spending. Low reported error rates risk creating a false sense of security. Because PERM relies on limited samples and lagged data, its findings understate risks and the scale of improper payments. Policymakers should strengthen PERM to improve accountability and enable enforcement actions in Medicaid.”

LTC Comment: Bottom line: no one knows how much fraud, waste and abuse permeate Medicaid because such limited measurements as exist are fatally flawed. How refreshing that this critical subject is finally getting the attention it deserves. ***

 

LTC BULLET: BRIDGING LTC SILOS

LTC Comment: Have you noticed how little the people and companies responsible for providing long-term care (LTC) communicate with the people and companies responsible for funding LTC?  You would think these two industries should have much to discuss. Nursing homes and home health agencies desperately need revenue. LTC insurers struggle to attract buyers. But the two professions rarely work together.

Both face a common problem. Medicaid pays LTC providers too little, often less than the cost of providing the care. Easy access to Medicaid when care is needed crowds out demand for private LTC insurance. Logically, LTC providers and insurers would unite and mobilize to advocate for policies that target Medicaid benefits to the neediest Americans and divert the well-to-do toward private financing, so that they pay economically sustainable market rates.

The Center for Long-Term Care Reform has published dozens of national and state-level studies proposing policy solutions along those lines. Most recently, “Long-Term Care: The Problem” and “Long-Term Care: The Solution” with the Paragon Health Institute. At the same time, we have placed articles and columns in trade journals and other publications intended to link the interests of LTC providers and insurers. Following are some examples from October 2021 through April 2024. We hope you’ll open and read some of them and that they will help tie together the interests and policies of LTC providers and insurers.

  1. The Medicaid LTC snafu,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnights LTC News, April 15, 2024 (PDF version.) This article shows how Medicaid’s generous eligibility rules allow people with significant income and assets to use Medicaid’s scarce resources.
  2. Setting the Record Straight on Long-Term Care Policy,” by Stephen A. Moses and Brian Blase, Townhall, April 14, 2024 (PDF version.) This article debunks the claim, presented in The New York Times’ recent series Dying Broke, that catastrophic long-term care expenses are wiping out the savings of American middle-class families.
  3. How government prevaricates about long-term care,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnights LTC News, February 23, 2024 (PDF version.) This article explores the biases in how federal officials and the media report long-term care expenditures. It deconstructs the conventional wisdom about out-of-pocket spending data. 
  4. Government must encourage personal responsibility, prohibit easy access to Medicaid,” by Steve Moses and Brian Blase, Washington Times, November 30, 2023. (PDF version.) Save Medicaid LTC for the needy by engaging self-interest and personal responsibility.
  5. The federal Medicaid bait and switch,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s LTC News, November 6, 2023. (PDF version.) Medicaid promised LTC providers generous revenue but reneged creating shortfalls that hurt providers and consumers.
  6. "What’s Wrong With Long-Term Care?," by Stephen A. Moses, RealClear Policy, November 2, 2022. (PDF version.) This article is a succinct explanation of what’s wrong with our long-term care system and how to fix it.
  7. LTC insurance sales suddenly surge,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s LTC News, August 10, 2022. (PDF version.) It took Washington State’s public long-term care insurance program to excite private LTC insurance demand in that state to unbelievable levels. This article explores this curious phenomenon and its important public policy implications.
  8. Long-term care’s mortal risk,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s LTC News, June 6, 2022. (PDF version.) What if our long-term care system collapses? This article explores how feeble our long-term care system actually is.
  9. Long-Term Care Epiphany,” by Stephen A. Moses, Broker World, June 2022. (PDF version.) What if the so-called “long-term care crisis” was really “no biggie”? This article reconceptualizes the LTC conundrum and provides a solution.
  10. Trappings of LTC system leave operators trapped,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s Long-Term Care News, February 23, 2022. (PDF version.) This article is a “thought experiment” exploring how a true free market can vastly improve our long-term care system.
  11. The Great Long-Term Care Compromise,” by Stephen A. Moses, Broker World, January 1, 2022. (PDF version.) Using Washington State’s WA Cares as a model, this article shows how to solve the long-term care crisis by mandating people to choose between social or private LTC insurance.
  12. The irony of long-term care advocacy,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s Long-Term Care News, December 17, 2021. (PDF version.) This article examines the disconnect between the long-term care people want and the long-term care public policy they get.
  13. Long Term Care Irony,” by Stephen A. Moses, Broker World, December 1, 2021. (PDF version.) When forced to choose between public and private options for long-term care, Washington State saw an unprecedented influx of private LTCi applications. This article examines the historical context and primary LTC myth driving such consumer behavior.  
  14. What works for long-term care and what doesn’t,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s LTC News, November 17, 2021. (PDF version.)
    This article gives a historical perspective of what’s gone wrong with public financing of long-term care and how private financing can improve it.
  15. What’s better for senior living and care — the market or government?,” by Stephen A. Moses, McKnight’s Senior Living, October 25, 2021. (PDF version.)
    This article explains why and how markets succeed while government usually fails.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, April 27, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-013:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • CMS asks states to submit Medicaid provider revalidation strategies, increase oversight

  • Medigap Premiums Leap, and Consumers Have Few Alternatives

  • Dr. Oz announces a 50-state audit of Medicaid program oversight

  • Exploring Early Uses of Artificial Intelligence in Long-Term Care Systems

  • House hearing highlights ‘systemic failure’ at heart of hospice, home health fraud

  • Americans Believe They Will Need $1.46 Million to Retire Comfortably

  • Needing long-term care in retirement one of Americans’ greatest fears, survey finds

  • State indicts 9 people on charges of fraud and theft involving Medicaid

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

Updated Monday, April 20, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-012:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • What’s worse than Medicaid fraud?

  • Henry Paulson Says U.S. Should Prepare for a 'Vicious' Bond Crash

  • Alternative Contingency Policies for When the Social Security Trust Fund Is Exhausted

  • The Trump Administration’s Anti-Waste in Health Care Campaign

  • $5,400 a Month for Assisted Living Is the New Reality—How Families Are Making It Work

  • Report: Home health providers ordered to pay over $100M in restitution for fraud in 2025

  • America Built No System For Aging: The Largest Generation In History Just Started Turning 80 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Friday, April 17, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: LTC INSURANCE FRAUD

LTC Comment: As health insurance fraud surges nationwide, we consider how it impacts LTC insurance in the private and public sectors after the ***news.***

*** LTC CLIPPINGS:  Did you catch these stories recently? Our LTC Clippings subscribers received them in real time including Steve Moses’s trenchant, often ironic, sometimes humorous, usually concise “LTC Comments.” To subscribe or for a free trial, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com. Examples below:

4/13/2026, “Report: With spend-down of assets, US long-term care system ‘effectively penalizes aging’,” by Kathleen Steele Gaivin, McKnights Senior Living

Quote: “Costs associated with the provision of long-term care in a system that requires lower- and middle-class older adults to spend down their assets to pay for home care or life in an assisted living community or skilled nursing facility perpetuates ‘cycles of wealth inequality,’ making it difficult for future generations to build financial security, according to a new study published by the Roosevelt Institute. … ‘This spend-down process interrupts the potential for intergenerational wealth building, after what is often a lifetime of work and saving by low-income and middle-class families, perpetuating cycles of wealth inequality,’ Forden said. ‘Meanwhile, these costs are increasingly captured by profit-driven corporations and private equity firms.’”

LTC Comment: Medicaid asset spend down is the most misunderstood concept in LTC financing jargon. It crushes the poor and lower middle class but gives the middle-class and affluent an off ramp. Unlike income spend down that requires spending for care, asset spend down can be done simply by using countable wealth to purchase exempt resources. I explained how that works and estimated how much it costs Medicaid (and taxpayers) in “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak.” Blaming “profit-driven corporations” for the damage spend down does to those in need is just socialist claptrap. It’s the “progressive” political proclivity to give everything to everyone and print the money to pay for it that is the root of the problem. To make sense of what ails LTC, read the Paragon Health Institute’s “Long-Term Care: The Problem” and “Long-Term Care: The Solution” and watch this “virtual LTC event” featuring age wave visionary Ken Dychtwald and leading LTC researchers. To find ample private funds for LTC, check out “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak.” For what not to do, see “Medi-Cal-amity: California’s Reckless Expansion of Medicaid Long-Term Care to the Affluent.” Much more on long-term care here. ***

 


4/16/2026
, “Henry Paulson Says U.S. Should Prepare for a 'Vicious' Bond Crash,” by Christopher Amstey, Financial Advisor

Quote: “Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on U.S. authorities to prepare a back-up plan in order to avert a potential collapse in demand for Treasuries — an event that he warned would have ‘vicious’ effects. … U.S. budget experts have for years warned of the potential for a ‘doom loop,’ where investors start demanding higher yields on Treasuries due to risks tied to the government’s swelling debt burden, which then causes an increase in the government’s interest payments — in turn widening the deficit. … ‘It’s going to take increased revenues, taxes, and dealing with expenses,’ he said. It would also mean overhauling Social Security and health care programs, he said. ‘You can raise the revenues without a big drag on growth, if you close preferences and loopholes in the tax code.’”

LTC Comment: Remember when Modern Monetary Theory told us the U.S. government could spend without restraint by printing money to fill funding gaps? Whoops! Turns out there’s a limit to that strategy. When you borrow so much that no one is willing to loan you more, you’re stuck. This reality is what will finally force America to confront problems like out-of-control entitlement spending. The good news is that we have plenty of realistic solutions to draw from to fix LTC.

 

LTC BULLET: LTC INSURANCE FRAUD

LTC Comment: LTC insurance fraud was a frequent topic at the recent Intercompany Long-Term Care Insurance (ILTCI) conference in Orlando, Florida. We covered that conference and its fraud sessions in detail a couple weeks ago in LTC Bullet: ILTCI 2026 Virtual Visit.

In the meantime, your Center for Long-Term Care Reform has started digging deeper into LTC insurance fraud. We’re especially interested in measures LTCI carriers have taken to identify, mitigate, and prosecute fraud. We will conduct a literature search and interview some of the experts who presented at the ILTCI meeting. We also invite anyone with expertise on this topic to share your insights and suggestions by contacting smoses@centerltc.com.

Our special interest in this topic is to identify best fraud control practices developed by private LTCI carriers that may be transferable to ameliorate the much bigger problem in public programs, especially Medicaid and Medicare. For now, we’re scoping out the general subject of health care fraud. These are some of the issues, suggested by AI, that we plan to explore in a draft paper and op-eds.

Insurance Fraud Incidence
Finding precise, "hard" data for long-term care (LTC) fraud is challenging because it is often grouped into broader "healthcare fraud" or "improper payment" categories. However, recent industry reports and government snapshots provide these estimated figures for 2023–2025:

Private Sector LTC Insurance Fraud
In the private sector, fraud is often measured as a percentage of total claims paid.

  • Estimated Fraud Rate: Experts from firms like illumifin and the Coalition Against Insurance Fraud estimate that 5% to 10% of all LTC insurance claims involve some form of fraud, waste, or abuse.
  • Financial Impact: With the industry paying approximately $14.1 billion in benefits in 2023, the estimated annual loss to fraud is roughly $700 million to $1.4 billion.
  • Case Severity: For sentenced healthcare fraud cases in 2024, the median loss per case was approximately $2.5 million, with nearly 20% of cases involving losses over $9.5 million

Health Care Fraud
LTCi becoming more of a target for fraud
What Data Says About Health Care Fraud 

Public Sector (Medicare & Medicaid) LTC Fraud
The public sector primarily tracks "Improper Payment Rates." It is critical to note that while improper payments include fraud, they also encompass administrative errors like missing documentation. 
Medicare Program Integrity and Efforts to Root Out Improper Payments, Fraud, Waste and Abuse
Fiscal Year 2024 Improper Payments Fact Sheet

  • Medicaid (FY 2025 Estimates):
    • Improper Payment Rate6.12% ($37.39 billion), an increase from 5.09% in FY 2024.
    • Fraud Specifically: Of these improper payments, only a fraction is confirmed fraud. Most (over 77%) are attributed to insufficient documentation.
  • Medicare (FY 2025 Estimates):
    • Fee-for-Service (FFS)6.55% ($28.83 billion).
    • Medicare Advantage (Part C)6.09% ($23.67 billion), often due to lack of documentation for diagnoses.
  • Enforcement Outcomes (FY 2024): State Medicaid Fraud Control Units (MFCUs) reported 1,151 convictions and recovered $1.4 billion

5 Key Facts About Medicaid Program Integrity – Fraud, Waste, Abuse and Improper Payments
Fiscal Year 2025 Improper Payments Fact Sheet
Medicaid Fraud Control Units Annual Report: Fiscal Year 2024
Improper Payments and Fraud: How They Are Related but Different
Types of Corporate Fraud

Fraud Tolerance
There is evidence suggesting that a segment of the public, particularly younger generations, has developed a higher tolerance for certain types of non-violent fraud, such as insurance fraud and digital scams. While many still view these actions as illegal, studies indicate a growing trend of rationalizing or accepting "lower-level" fraud, often viewing it as a victimless crime against large, wealthy corporations rather than individuals. 

Survey Finds Younger Generations Have a Higher Tolerance For Insurance Fraud – What Insurers Should Know

Fraud Types Shared by Public and Private Insurers

  • "Phantom" care and billing: Submitting claims for services never provided, such as x-rays, drugs, or home care hours.

  •  Upcoding: Misrepresenting a patient's diagnosis or severity to bill for a higher rate of reimbursement.

  • Medical Identity Theft: Fraudsters visiting facilities to collect Medicare or Medicaid numbers under the guise of offering "free" services, later used for bogus billing.

  • Kickbacks: Financial incentives given to physicians or facilities to steer patients toward specific high-cost therapies or services.

  • These practices often involve predatory actors working on both the public and private sides.

Common Red Flags

  • Early Duration Claims: Claims filed soon after a policy is purchased.
  • Unusual Billing: Inconsistent, high, or rapidly increasing hours.
  • Pressure Tactics: Salespeople rushing decisions or pushing to handle all documentation.
  • Too-Good-To-Be-True: Policies promising to cover everything. 

Around 38.5% of companies surveyed reported provider misrepresentation of services as a significant risk. 

Critical Vulnerability: Cognitive Impairment 
A major finding in current research is that populations with diminished capacity are disproportionately targeted. Both private and public sectors are now prioritizing caregiver-specific audits and specialized training for claim examiners to detect when a patient is being manipulated into signing falsified logs or timesheets. Common LTC Fraud Schemes Targeting Vulnerable Seniors

Private Sector Lessons Transferable to the Public Sector
Private insurers have pioneered several strategies that are now considered best practices for public side enforcement: 6 Claims Best Practices for Life Insurance Fraud Prevention

The public sector can enhance its anti-fraud efforts by adopting the private sector’s focus on individual-level behavioral verification and formalized cross-payer data integration. While programs like Medicare and Medicaid excel at large-scale algorithmic detection, private insurers often utilize more "on-the-ground" investigative techniques that can identify sophisticated schemes where the billing data itself appears legitimate. 
Fraud Control in the Health Care Industry: Assessing the State of the Art

1. Shift from "Pay and Chase" to Real-Time Prevention
The public sector can adopt private-sector strategies to move from reactive recovery to proactive prevention:

  • Adopting "Pre-Payment" Edits: Private insurers use sophisticated "claim scrubbing" applications to flag anomalies before payment is issued. Implementing similar real-time root-cause analysis in public systems can reduce the need for expensive post-payment investigations.
  • Electronic Visit Verification (EVV) Optimization: Public programs can learn from private insurers' use of GPS and biometric data to ensure caregivers are physically present at the reported care location, a key defense against "phantom" billing. 

Public-Private Partnership to Prevent Health Care Fraud Announced by Health and Human Services
Best practices for employers to combat claims-related healthcare fraud
Long-Standing State-Based Efforts to Combat Fraud Against Medicaid Continue to Improve

2. Enhanced Behavioral and Field Investigations
Private insurers often identify fraud by looking beyond the billing codes to the actual lifestyle and behavior of the parties involved

  • Targeted Surveillance: Private sector "field investigations" frequently uncover fraud—such as patients performing activities they claim to be unable to do—that purely data-driven public audits might miss.
  • Caregiver-Specific Audits: Focusing research on the caregiver’s lifestyle, professional licensing, and historical litigation can uncover systemic fraud rings. 

Long-Standing State-Based Efforts to Combat Fraud Against Medicaid Continue to Improve

3. Formalized Information Sharing Networks
Public-private partnerships are the most direct way for the public sector to benefit from private-sector progress:

  • Healthcare Fraud Prevention Partnership (HFPP): This voluntary program allows federal and state agencies to share data with private plans to gain a "cross-payer" view. This helps identify "double billing" where a provider bills both a private LTC policy and Medicare for the same service on the same day.
  • Unified Fraud Hotspots: By sharing data on specific suspicious billing codes and geographic fraud "hotspots," the public sector can direct its high-intensity enforcement teams more effectively. 

About the Partnership
Public-Private Partnership to Fight Fraud Formed
Public-Private Partnership to Fight Fraud Formed
Public-Private Partnership to Prevent Health Care Fraud Announced by Health and Human Services

4. Improving Public Awareness and Reporting
The public sector can refine its "whistleblower" and awareness campaigns by studying what motivates individuals in the private sector to report fraud
The Public’s Self-Avoidance and Other-Reliance in the Reporting of Medical Insurance Fraud: A Cross-Sectional Survey in China

  • Incentivizing Reporting: Research shows a "free-rider" mentality often prevents people from reporting public insurance fraud. Strengthening whistleblower protections and creating stronger incentives—similar to those in private litigation—can improve the flow of actionable leads to Medicaid Fraud Control Units (MFCUs).

Long-Standing State-Based Efforts to Combat Fraud Against Medicaid Continue to Improve

  • Education on Specific Red Flags: Adopting private-sector training that teaches beneficiaries to look for "red flags" like pre-filled timesheets or inconsistent care plans can empower them as a front-line defense. 

Long-Term Care Fraud (NAIC)

Key Trend: Both sectors identify Personal Care Services (PCS) as the highest risk area. In Medicaid, PCS attendants and agencies accounted for the most fraud convictions (326 in FY 2025), a trend mirrored in private sector reports identifying home care as a "major industry challenge". 
Medicaid Fraud Control Units recover $700,000 in assisted living cases, with 300+ investigations still open

 

#############################

 

Updated Monday, April 13, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-011:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Report: With spend-down of assets, US long-term care system ‘effectively penalizes aging’

  • How Long-Term Care Costs Drain the Middle Class and Deepen Intergenerational Wealth Inequality

  • Less than half of Americans are planning for their retirement healthcare needs, survey finds

  • Skilled nursing emerging among most attractive real estate sectors

  • Layin’ It on the Line: The long-term care crisis in Utah: Why national plans fail here and how to shield your assets (Part 2)

  • Future long term care expenditure trajectories across OECD countries

  • The Five Biggest Medicaid Planning Mistakes — and How to Avoid Them

  • Rising Long-Term Healthcare Costs Pose Growing Threat to Farm Family Legacies

  • Providers must educate prospects to cut gap between expectations, realities of senior living rates: report

  • Eight arrested in $50M hospice fraud scheme as oversight intensifies

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, April 6, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-010:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • CMS CRUSH initiative alone not sufficient to fight fraud, groups say

  • Federal Debt Management: Treasury Is Meeting Borrowing Needs but the Deteriorating Fiscal Outlook Poses Risks

  • Home care groups CRUSH plans for more anti-fraud requirements

  • What Happens When the Social Security Trust Fund Is Exhausted?

  • Who should pay for older adults’ care? Caregivers answer differently

  • Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Government Health Care Programs is No Joke

  • We Are 63 With $5.7 Million. My Wife Wants to Buy Long-Term Care Insurance, but I Want to Self-Insure. Who Is Right?

  • New Medicare HCBS model, designed for California, targets ‘overlooked middle’

  • Top economist finds silver lining for skilled nursing amid nation’s uncertain outlook

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Friday, April 3, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC Bullet: ILTCI 2026 Virtual Visit

LTC Comment: ILTCI ’26 was another successful industry convocation. This “virtual visit” to the conference is intended to give those who could not attend a sense of what it was like and to encourage them to consider attending in the future. It follows the ***news.***

*** TODAY'S LTC BULLET is sponsored by Claude Thau (BackNine Insurance). BackNine gives you a free personalized website at no cost. Your clients (& family & friends) can, with as little or as much of your involvement as you or they want, buy life insurance and LTCi, and can speed issue by scheduling a paramed and uploading medical records immediately. We quote stand-alone LTCi, linked-benefit and life with a LTC rider side-by-side. Claude is the lead author of Milliman’s annual Broker World LTCi Survey & a past Chair of the Center for Long-Term Care Financing. Contact him at 913-707-8863 or claude@back9ins.com to learn about more great BackNine features and services. ***

*** HAPPY BIRTHDAY to the Center for Long-Term Care Reform. We completed our 28th year on April 1, 2026. Check out the Center’s many state- and national-level policy studies here. Read dozens of published articles here. Speeches, here. Review hundreds of LTC Bullets, organized by topic and chronologically, here. This is how we announced our mission in “Center for Long-Term Care Financing Established; "LTC Bullets" Opening Salvo”: “The Center will advocate public policy that targets scarce public resources to the neediest, while encouraging people who are young, healthy and affluent enough, to take responsibility for themselves. We believe that private insurance and investment can guarantee quality long-term care for prosperous seniors and help to save the Medicaid long-term care program for the truly needy. The Center will offer a range of fee-for-service products to public and private clients including consulting, publishing, training and public speaking.” It’s been a great run and it will continue as long as we have your support and collegiality in our common mission to improve long-term care for all Americans. ***
 

LTC BULLET: ILTCI 2026 VIRTUAL VISIT

LTC Comment: The 2026 Intercompany Long-Term Care Insurance Conference convened March 8–11, 2026 in Orlando, FL at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort. The meeting’s theme this year was "Dream… Design… Deliver: Reimagining the Future of LTC.” Conference chair, Gina Besz from “illumifin,” opened the proceedings. She told the 1000-plus attendees what to expect, thanked the organizers, presenters and sponsors, and disclosed (always a topic of great interest) the city hosting next year’s conference: Indianapolis, March 14-17, 2027. She also surprised us by sharing where the meeting will convene the following year: Houston, April 2-5, 2028.

Next came announcement of the ILTCI Recognition Award recipients for 2026. This award “honors the trailblazers, innovators, and lifelong contributors advancing long-term care insurance and shaping the future of aging in America.” Steve Serfass, Partner, Faegre Drinker Biddle and Reath, LLP, received the individual award. Two companies shared the organization award: Lincoln Financial and One America. Congratulations to these award recipients for their many years of dedication and hard work in our common mission to improve long-term care for all Americans.

Jeff Noel, a 30-year Disney Leadership veteran, sponsored by NGL, keynoted the conference. He's the author of “Mid-Life Celebration” and hosts the podcast “If Disney Ran Your Life.” Noel captivated the audience with stories and theories bearing on leadership excellence, employee engagement, customer service, brand loyalty, creativity and innovation. Always do “just a little more than what the customer expects.” Go the “extra inch” not just the last mile. Their standing ovation demonstrated the audience’s appreciation of his remarks.

The exhibit hall is a highlight of every ILTCI meeting. It is where attendees convene to eat, drink, visit exhibitors and network. I missed the opening exhibit hall reception Sunday night due to flight complications, but I attended the breakfast, lunch, and late-afternoon sessions on the remaining two days. To meet, greet, confer, pitch, negotiate and generally do business of any kind in the LTC insurance industry, there is nothing like the ILTCI conference with its exhibit hall and the ample opportunities to connect in the hallways as well. Be there next year in Indy if you can.

After Monday morning’s announcements and keynote address, the conference turned to breakout sessions. These included presentations on seven different subject tracks:

  • Sales, Marketing, & Distribution: Focused on consumer engagement, expanding into middle-income markets, and distribution trends.
  • Actuarial & Finance: Covered topics such as AI in actuarial work, asset-liability management, and in force management.
  • Management & Operations: Addressed operational excellence, technology adoption, and call center evolution.
  • Wellness & Aging in Place Solutions: Explored innovative services, technologies for aging in place, and AI/robotics in care.
  • Claims & Underwriting: Focused on accelerated underwriting, electronic health records, and fraud detection.
  • Legal, Compliance & Regulatory: Covered regulatory changes, compliance issues, and legal developments impacting LTC insurance.
  • [Track Name Varies - General/Future Trends]: Covered broader industry topics, such as the future of LTC and caregiver crises. 

It seems like themes run through the ILTCI conferences for years at a time. I noted the focus on wellness in LTC Bullet: Virtual Visit to ILTCI 2023. Emphasizing wellness and doing more for policyholders than simply processing and paying claims remains a strong conference theme. But it seemed to me that at the 2026 program fraud identification, control, and mitigation took a new and bigger role. That topic especially interests me as fraud is soaring right now in public programs like Medicaid and Medicare. So you’ll see in what follows that I covered several breakout sessions aimed at the topic of fraud.

It’s worth noting that another theme, prominent in earlier ILTCI meetings, has disappeared. That is the public policy context in which the LTC insurance industry operates. Medicaid is the predominant payer for LTC in the USA. It crowds out private LTC insurance by desensitizing the public to LTC risk and cost leaving private LTC insurance with a small residual of the market. Yet Medicaid was barely mentioned at the 2026 conference. Even state experiments with public LTC financing such as WA Cares in Washington State and the latest proposal for a national LTC financing program, WISH, were mostly ignored. Of course, I wasn’t in every session, so maybe there was public policy content I missed, but with no track dedicated to the subject as in the past, its importance has clearly declined.

First Breakout Monday, March 9, 2026, 10:45am
Track: Legal, Compliance & Regulatory
Title
: The Fraud Escape Room Experience: LTC Edition
Description: Step into the world of long-term care insurance fraud investigations—like you’ve never experienced before. This interactive session combines real-life case studies with an escape-room-inspired twist. Our expert panel will guide you through actual fraud investigations from across the country, highlighting the tactics and techniques used to uncover and stop bad actors. But beware: after each case, you’ll receive a cryptic clue left behind by a fictional mastermind who may be orchestrating these schemes. Are these cases truly unrelated, or is someone pulling the strings from the shadows? Work together to solve riddles, connect the dots, and uncover the truth before time runs out. Join us for a session that educates, entertains, and challenges your investigative instincts—because in this room, every detail matters.
Moderator:
Matt DeLong, illumifin
Presenters:
Tara Dickson, Cozen O'Conner
Adam Haque, John Hancock
Tom Kakos, illumifin
Matt Keeling, Unum
Comments: This program blew me away. I had no idea fraud was so rampant in private LTC insurance, nor did I know anything about the highly creative efforts carriers are employing to identify, prove, and control fraud that these speakers shared. They described three case studies, each of which was nearly beyond belief. They told of policy holders who claimed severe need, got approved, but were then shown to be fully capable of doing all the ADLs they claimed to be unable to manage. Arrogant and brazen, the fraudsters evaded being caught until they were shown to be out of compliance by clever methods described by these presenters. Such techniques included desktop investigation, searching social media, unmanned surveillance, tracking travel and many more.

Here’s just one of the anecdotes they shared. Married couple on claim since 2023. Both filed and approved for similar conditions. Tax qualified policies. Both had $380 per day home health unlimited lifetime. Both claimed they needed assistance with five out of six ADLs. Neither claimant had precipitating event. 12 hours a day 7 days a week for husband. 16 hours for wife. On claim same year. Documentation issues. Desktop investigation. Social media. Husband was sole owner of home care agency. Both reported not driving, using cane. Too consistent. Handwriting gave them away. The same individual did all the documentation. Extremely clever in how projected. Reviewers struck gold in social media, found something interesting. Extensive overseas trips while on claim, including Spain, Portugal, Puerto Rico, California. How could they do that while on claim? Are caregivers actually showing up? Got video taking trash out with no trouble, walking with no cane. Wife shopping loading, stuff in vehicle. All while claiming many hours of care. All activities while caregiver supposedly providing care. Did 15 days of surveillance. Never saw a single caregiver come. Interview. Time to talk to claimant. What did you do today, yesterday? Called and talked to husband. Insisted both need claims, can’t leave home without caregiver. Are caregivers present? Yes, but just stepped out to get lifesaving medications.

Showed him all documents, pressed further, eventually admitted he created all the documentation including the claims. Said took caregivers along on international trips. Should be records of this. Showed clips of him and wife moving independently. We’re always in pain, they said. Where are your caregivers? Biggest turn of investigation. Caregivers returned from errands. Did not see anyone from our surveillance. No photo IDs. Husband answered all their questions. Week later, called husband back. He admitted in Philippines. Who were those individuals claimed to be caregivers? Just locals from Philippines. Case outcomes. Both claims reviewed by medical staff. Claims closed. Fraud, waste and abuse reported to Dept. of Insurance. Settlement reached. Surrendered both policies and made some repayment.  

Second Breakout, Monday, March 9, 2026, 2pm
Track: Legal, Compliance, & Regulatory
Title: Inside the Jury Box: An LTCI Mock Voir Dire, How Everyday Consumers View LTC Insurance
Description: What do everyday consumers really think about long-term care insurance—and how might those views shape the outcome of a trial? In this interactive session, we’ll stage a mock voir dire (jury selection) to explore how potential jurors respond to key concepts like policy language, benefit triggers, and product design. Participants will observe and engage with the process as attorneys question mock jurors, uncover biases, and strategize selections. Beyond the courtroom drama, this session offers a rare opportunity to hear unfiltered consumer attitudes toward LTC insurers, coverage expectations, and claims disputes. Whether you're in legal, compliance, product, or risk, you'll walk away with a deeper understanding of how your decisions may be interpreted by a jury—and how to prepare for it.
Moderator:
Gina Fortin, Unum
Presenters:
Matt Kops, Blueprint Trial Consulting
Chris Petillo, Faegre Drinker
Michael Rafalko, Cozen O'Connor
Comments: Clever idea. Attorneys for the plaintiff and the defendant interviewed “jurors” playing various roles to represent different kinds of consumers. Jurors bring experiences, attitudes/values and personalities to court. A “jury consultant” commented on the process of selecting or rejecting jurors in the voir dire process of a trial. All 9 jurors interviewed by both attorneys based on a hypothetical complaint fact pattern. Each attorney eliminated three jurors based on brief 4-minute interviews leaving three of the nine empaneled. The session used audience polling. The idea was to tease out consumer attitudes about LTC insurance, but the jurors were all people in the business. So I’m not sure that objective was achieved. But the session definitely invited consideration of complex ideas and attitudes about the product.

Third Breakout, Monday, March 9, 2026, 3:45pm
Track: Wellness & Aging in Place Solutions
Title: Imagineering Aging with a Gen Z Advocate: Promising Models and Interrogational Collaboration
Description: In this fireside chat led by Gen Z advocate Arielle Galinsky, we'll explore bold ideas for aging-in-place, LTC policy reform, and the importance of multigenerational collaboration. Arielle brings her deep passion on all things aging & LTC as well as her commitment to advancing aging policy reform at the state and national levels. From her research and experience, she will lead insightful conversation on 1) why aging needs to be an intergenerational conversation, 2) what we can learn from international aging models and policies, 3) and what policymakers need to know to make this vision a reality. Get ready for an energizing conversation that brings a fresh, forward-thinking perspective on aging.
Speakers:
Cailyn Canty, Davies
Arielle Galinsky, The Legacy Project, Inc.
Comments:
This session was intended to bring to light the innovative perspectives of a Gen Z influencer. The principle speaker, Ms. Galinsky, was articulate and knowledgeable. Her views were grounded in personal experience. She became a Certified Nursing Assistant (CNA) to understand better the challenges of caregiving. Very thoughtful, but I discerned little unique perspective from the younger generation. She seemed to be saying what older generations are also saying with little new analysis. A promising wrap up to the conversation was promised. But it amounted to referencing states that have proposed new policy models like WA Cares. What is one thing we can all do? Support the WISH Act; advocate for it. This is not fresh thinking, only restating the current public policy thinking, such as it is in the LTC insurance business.

2nd day March 10, 2026, 9am
Track
: Claims and Underwriting
Title: The Current Anti-Fraud Landscape: Industry Insights
Description: Join leading experts as they share how carriers are currently viewing and addressing fraud. This session will dive into the latest industry survey findings, examine innovative approaches to fraud mitigation, and explore effective models for managing fraud, waste, and abuse (FWA). Attendees will gain valuable perspectives on current challenges and best practices to safeguard the integrity of LTC claims.
Moderator:
Roy Christenson, ERAC
Speakers:
Jeff Ferrand, illumifin
Jessica Loesing Gallagher, Faegre Drinker
Tom McManama, PwC
Comments: Fascinating session. Fraud recognized as a problem 20 years ago, but over the past 10 years it has really taken off. No longer lost in a claims “black box.” Fraud identification and control is getting more sophisticated. Rapid acceleration of technology. Trying to leverage it. Fraud thought to affect other business lines, but now seen to hit LTC insurance too. PwC Anti-Fraud Survey showed 6 to 8% of claims have fraud. $1.3 billion. By 2030 Milliman found $25 billion claims in four years. So $2.5 to $3 billion in fraud. “We are all fraud ambassadors now.” Much higher for home health care than these estimates that are across all products. What is most common type? Claimant and provider fraud and combination, collusion. Not eligible at start or became not eligible but stayed on claim. Provider bills where not providing care. Skimming. Charge for more and pocket some. Easier to investigate home health care (HHC) so tend to start there. Facility fraud has lot of checks and balances. Vulnerability in billing practices. Little prosecution of fraud. Prosecutors focus on bigger fish, like Medicare and Medicaid. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) are only now beginning to search for and control fraud that runs rampant in public programs but receives little attention from states that reap a bonanza of federal funding.

2nd day March 10, 2026, 10:45pm
Track
: Management & Operations
Title: AI Fakes and Real Risks: Securing Long-Term Care Systems from Manipulation
Description: As deep fake technology becomes more sophisticated, the long-term care industry faces new threats to operational integrity and patient safety. This session explores how AI-generated falsifications can impact critical areas such as HR, policy administration, and claims —posing risks to claims processing and regulatory compliance. We’ll examine real-world scenarios, discuss detection strategies, and explore how organizations can safeguard against manipulation while maintaining trust and accuracy in their data systems.
Producer (non-participant):
Paul Marquez, Diligence International Group, LLC
Speakers:
Karen Babio, Davies
Kevin Glasgow, Diligence International Group
Comments:
Overview: Fakes not new, old theme, me toos, art of deception. AI to create fakes, creating synthetic identities, tech and tools; is your insurer ready? Most people are honest but some aren’t. Out there to defraud in any way they can. Have to be careful because there are bad actors. What is a deep fake? Universal studios pioneered computer generated voice or image to look real. Systems learn from each other improving deep fakes. Trojan horse. New tools lowered cost and skill needed. Art of deception: cognitive biases, shortcuts, emotional influence, social trust, cooperation, cognitive overload tendencies for over confidence, expertise gaps. They only have to be right a small percent of time. Criminals targeting. Awareness gap. Tech gap. What’s changed? Presenters created the introductory fake very easy, low level. No tech training. Very low cost to create avatar. Could have done anyone in the room.
“Catch me if you can”: movie. Impersonations. Major insight: Change in attitude toward nonviolent crime. Younger generation much more accepting of profiting from nonviolent crime. Consider in context of home health fraud. Effect on jury pools.
Fakes are nothing new. Just new tech doing more things. Voting on which images real. About random chance. Better at finding video fakes.
Using AI fakes to make better, smarter, faster. Phishing, spear phishing (targeted), vishing (video phishing), smishing (using fraudulent texts). Counterfeit compliance certs insurance certificates.
Financial records, invoices paystubs, utility bills tax form, fake ID documents.
Possible imposter originated scams initiators and facilitators: family members, people in position of trust, insurance community members, human traffickers, organized crime groups, paramedical examiners, attorneys, brokers, investors. Getting more organized.
Has your organization any training for deep fakes? What kind?
Apply for credit over and over again. Loyalty information. Gradually create identify. Get higher and higher credit rating. Fictitious person. Continue to “ripen” ID until accepted.
AI fraud surges 195%. AI arms race. Synthetic identities. $30 billion in life insurance industry annually.
Companies need to think more like banks.
Threat actors always out there. Attitude shapes moral compass against insurers. Insurance has a high ROI. Organized crime funding has entered the fray.
SIFT: Stop, investigate, find, trace to original source. 

2nd day March 10, 2026, 2pm
Track
: Management & Operations
Title: Inside the Mind of a Hacker: Cyber security Threats and Defenses in Insurance
Description: Join an ethical hacker for a behind-the-scenes look at how cybercriminals are evolving - and how AI is reshaping the cyber security landscape. Through real-world examples and expert insights, this session reveals common vulnerabilities, emerging AI-driven attack methods, and practical defenses. Learn how cyber security impacts your business - and walk away with actionable strategies to protect your organization from the risks of an AI-enabled threat environment.
Moderator: Christie Conway, Wellcove
Speakers:
Kalin Kelly, Continental General
Tom Liston, Bad Wolf Security
Comments: AI is not experimental, it’s in the wild. Changing rules for defenders and offenders. What is AI? Systems that find patterns, massive data sets, on internet. Lots of knowledge. But dark side. Models mimic understanding brilliantly. But they don’t reason. Excel at static prediction not logical deduction. Content generation, code assistance, customer service, and everything else. Private investment in generative AI soaring. $34 billion, up 19%. Limits of today’s AI, not necessarily going to get same output every time. May confidently present but it is wrong. Not responsible for anything. Falls on humans to control. 4.4% 2023 performance 71.7% 2024 performance. AI coding capability has gone explosive in growth. Hackers faster, defenders smarter. Fraud pattern detection. Synthetic employees, when agents talk to agents. Undercurrent. Sub layer underneath humans. Unmonitored. Could proliferate bad information. Driven social engineering. Excellent impersonalization. Video calls. Texts. Email. Phone. Fake documents. Executive impersonalization. Uncomfortable truth. What companies doing. Not a lot. 78% use, 40% mitigate risk, 37% have governance. Adoption has exploded, but governance last.
97% no access controls, 63% no governance. Average global breach cost: $4.4 million.

Tom Liston: I’m a thief. Broke into banks and much else. 60% of firms suffered data breach; 277 days to discover a data breach; Overall 93% resulted in an external attacker gaining internal network access. He set out to find one compromised business per day. Found 500. Very easy. Who? Small to medium business, large well-known companies, government organizations; universities. Solutions: Treat network as if it is compromised; Limit damage attacker can do, network security basics not magic black box. Use multi-factor identification. Monitor closely.

2nd day March 10, 2026, 3:45pm
Track
: Claims & Underwriting
Title: Game On: Integrating FWA Programs into the Claims Process - A Chutes and Ladders Experience
Description: Join us for an engaging and interactive session that brings the classic board game Chutes and Ladders to life. This dynamic experience combines audience participation with practical insights, guiding you through the highs and lows of integrating FWA programs into the LTC claim process. Each “move” on the board represents real-world examples, challenges, and opportunities - including emerging technologies, digital controls, smart workflows, and human insights. Led by seasoned claims executives and an experienced trial attorney, this session goes beyond theory—offering actionable strategies, risk mitigation tips, and legal perspectives that matter. Whether you climb the ladder of success or slide down a chute of unexpected complications, you’ll leave with a deeper understanding of how to stay ahead in today’s evolving long-term care claims landscape.
Moderator:
Jane Bagley, Fuzion
Speakers:      
Andrew Azarmi, Dentons
Laurene Polignone, John Hancock Financial Services
Kristen Sewell, Continental General
Comments:
Series of scenarios offered. Then vote on whether fraud or not. Go down a chute if wrong; up a ladder if correct. In the middle, I noted “So far all examples obvious.” Andrew, the attorney, comes at it from a different perspective. Lawyer, not insurance company. Lessons learned. Facts in claims can become questionable. Policyholder appeals claim denial. Submits signed letter from primary care physician Dr. Feelgood. Under his care. Suffers cognitive impairment. Needs assistance with several ADLs .You verify Dr. Feelgood is a board certified MD. Video surveillance over 5 days reveals policyholder is walking, driving, entering/exiting sedan, rolling 2 large trash cans from curb up sloped driveway into garage. Picking up dry cleaning while talking on cell. Entering and exiting Pilates studio. Answer: Time review. 

3rd Day, March 11, 2026, 8:30am
Title
: Alzheimer's Association: Explore Cutting-edge Developments in Brain Health, Diagnosis, and Treatments
Description: Learn how lifestyle interventions can reduce the risk of cognitive impairment, how blood-based biomarkers are enabling earlier, more accessible Alzheimer’s diagnosis and advancements in treatments. The second half of this session will provide a comprehensive overview of rapidly moving innovations within dementia care specialty models including both Medicare and Medicare Advantage funded approaches. The impressive early clinical and cost savings outcomes and how LTCI specifically might take advantage in the short-to-mid-term. Discussions will include an overview of the Dementia Care Navigation Service, powered by Rippl and the Alzheimer’s Association, which has shown promising results including a 30% drop in emergency department visits and a 15% reduction in hospital admissions through personalized, proactive support aligned with Center for Medicare and Medicaid’s GUIDE Model.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, March 30, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-009:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • My brother says lawyers can get him a Medicaid nursing home in Florida for a ‘hefty fee,’ despite his assets. Is this a scam?

  • Family caregivers’ unpaid work valued at over $1T in 2024, AARP report finds

  • China launches long-term care insurance system to alleviate aging challenges

  • Long-term care is expensive. Take these 3 steps now to help you afford it later.

  • Fears Over Retirement Healthcare Costs Are Rising — And Many Americans Aren’t Planning for Them

  • A Medicaid 'spend down' may get an older person long-term care coverage but isn't a DIY strategy

  • 5 ‘AI-proof’ healthcare jobs will surge through 2034

  • Lincoln Financial Recognized for Leadership in the Advancement of Long-Term Care Planning

  • Japan's elder-to-elder caregiving crisis fuels homicides and hidden neglect

  • ‘Heartbreaking and destructive’: Ohio lawmakers seek to rein in Medicaid home liens

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Wednesday, March 25, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-008:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Senior care rates balloon in every state: CareScout report

  • Older adults with financial trouble experience faster cognitive decline, study finds

  • CMS’ anti-fraud tactics run risk of destabilizing HCBS system, article asserts

  • Alzheimer’s beneficiaries benefited from Medicare Advantage risk adjustment model, study finds

  • Lawmakers reintroduce Hospice CARE Act, which would update benefit, help stop fraud

  • UPDATED: ‘Good news’ as CMS doubles spending on nursing home staffing campaign

  • 2026 Long-Term Care Market Outlook

  • Simultaneous senior care and child care burdening ‘sandwich generation,’ report finds

  • State scraps managed care for Medicaid’s LTC patients

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, March 23, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: VINCE BODNAR ON LUMOS (corrected)

LTC Comment: Today’s “Guest Bullet” features Vince Bodnar with exciting Plateau/Lumos developments after the ***news.*** (We regret having accidentally published an earlier, unedited version of this material on Friday, March 20.)

*** THE 2026 ILTCI CONFERENCE in Orlando, Florida March 8-11 was another big success. Over 1000 attendees explored LTCI’s frontiers in each of seven subject tracks. The Center for Long-Term Care Reform will bring you our annual “virtual visit” to the 2026 conference in two weeks. Our conference coverage, giving summaries of the program’s keynote and breakout sessions, is a tradition that goes back to the first one in Miami, 2001. Check out our “History of the LTC Insurance Conferences” published in 2021 and for conference coverage 2023 to 2025, search “virtual” here. These sources offer a fascinating history of the hot topics and many challenges the industry has faced year-by-year during the first quarter of the current century. Enjoy! ***


LTC BULLET: VINCE BODNAR ON LUMOS (corrected)

LTC Comment: I’ve followed the long-term care insurance industry’s successes and challenges since the mid-1980s. Through most of that history one name stood out for his expertise, creativity, professionalism and congeniality. Vince Bodnar has concentrated on LTCI since 1990. With over three decades of experience, he has held many key roles, including Chief Actuary at illumifin, co-founder of DaVinci Consulting Group, LLC, and leadership positions at Genworth Financial, Willis Towers Watson and Milliman. He has spent his career shaping how America understands and delivers long-term care protection. He has thrice chaired the ILTCI Conference, founding its Wellness & Aging in Place Solutions Track during his last chairmanship, twice chaired the Society of Actuaries LTC Section and founded what is now the LTCi Consortium. He has also been recognized for his contributions to LTC insurance program design on multiple continents.

From his early actuarial work designing innovative coverage models to his leadership in advancing new distribution strategies across the LTC industry, Bodnar has been a consistent voice for disciplined, sustainable product development. Now, as President of The Plateau Group – recently rebranded as Lumos Insurance—he’s applying that same clarity of purpose to a broader challenge: integrating long-term care into the full retirement journey.

Bodnar's arrival at Lumos comes at a pivotal moment. The 45-year-old carrier is building a suite of senior-focused life, health, and long-term care solutions—each grounded in the company's hallmark underwriting rigor and long-term risk discipline. For Bodnar, the mission is not just to launch products, but to redefine how retirees and their advisors approach aging, income, and care as connected parts of a single financial story.

Here in his own words is what Vince Bodnar and Lumos seek to achieve.

Building LTC into a Lifecycle: How a 45-Year Credit Insurance Carrier Is Entering the Senior Market

You don’t expect conversations about long-term care planning to begin with credit insurance, but that foundation is central to understanding what Lumos is now building in the senior market. The Plateau Group was founded in 1981 by a consortium of Tennessee banks as a credit insurance carrier. Under that name, it spent more than four decades helping lenders manage portfolio risk responsibly.

In March 2026, the company rebranded as Lumos Insurance. The new name follows a multi-year modernization of the company’s operating infrastructure and governance framework. The overhaul was significant enough that its leaders decided a new brand was necessary to reflect the changes.

That modernized platform is broader than the old name suggested. Lumos now spans senior-focused life and health solutions, supplemental health products, and specialty property and casualty programs—in addition to the credit insurance work that started it all. The company holds an AM Best A- (Excellent) financial strength rating and has maintained it through more than four decades of market cycles.

The part of that platform getting the most attention right now is the senior market. Specifically, what Lumos is building around long-term care.

"Insurance is a long-duration business. Clarity early — around objectives, product design, distribution structure, and accountability — allows execution to scale responsibly." — Vince Bodnar, President & CFO, Lumos Insurance

Meeting People Where They Are in Retirement

Getting older is expensive. Medicare covers a lot, but not long-term care—and that gap can swallow a retirement plan fast. Lumos is building a suite of products, all backed by large global reinsurers, aimed at helping people manage that exposure, starting in the second half of 2026.

The company’s philosophy starts with a simple observation: the industry has long treated Medicare supplement coverage, retirement income, and long-term care as three separate conversations, usually with three different advisors. Lumos is trying to change that. The goal is to give agents a way to start a relationship with a client at retirement and stay useful to them as their needs change over the years—being there for the wellness questions, the family stress, and eventually the care itself.

The entry point is a Medicare supplement product for clients who are newly eligible for Medicare. From there, Lumos plans to introduce a long-term care product suite that covers multiple types of buyers and distribution models—traditional standalone LTC coverage, products designed for worksite or direct-to-consumer channels, and hybrid structures that pair longevity protection with care funding.

One product is already on the market and is gaining traction. Lumos has introduced an underwritten single-premium immediate annuity—a SPIA—designed specifically for people who are already receiving care and need more income to cover it. The problem it solves is real: someone in a care facility, burning through savings, who needs a predictable income stream to avoid outliving their money. The product is available in several states now and is expected to reach most states within 30 days.

Lumos is also looking beyond traditional insurance products. The company is evaluating ways to help retirees tap home equity to support aging in place—modest home modifications, safety technology, the kind of investments that let someone stay in their own house longer. It’s not insurance, but it addresses the same underlying goal.

The proposed suite also includes wellness support, caregiver resources, and care coordination services. That last piece matters more than it might sound. Most long-term care is delivered by family members—a daughter driving her mother to appointments, a spouse managing medications, a son trying to figure out what Medicaid does and doesn’t cover. Lumos wants to give those families practical tools, not just policyholders a policy.

For agents and advisors, the model is designed around continuity. An agent who writes a Medicare supplement policy at 65 has a natural reason to come back at 70, and 75, and beyond—if the carrier has products worth coming back for. That’s the relationship Lumos is trying to make possible.

Credit Insurance Is Still the Core

"Credit life, health, property and related remain core to our identity, but our platform is broader. The underwriting rigor that built our credit business now applies equally to senior health, supplemental health, and specialty P&C programs." — Vince Bodnar

None of this means Lumos is walking away from credit insurance. The company is emphatic on that point. Credit protection isn’t a legacy business being maintained out of nostalgia—it’s the foundation everything else is built on. And the credit-driven insurance market, it turns out, needs disciplined carriers right now. Many larger companies have pulled back from credit life, credit health, and related products in recent years. Lumos has moved toward that gap rather than away from it.

The three pillars of the Lumos platform—Credit Protection, Specialty Property & Casualty, and Life & Health—run on the same operating discipline. The governance standards, the underwriting rigor, the commitment to long-term partner alignment: those aren’t new. They’re just being applied to new markets.

What Comes Next

The full product suite is expected to roll out through 2026, with specific timing dependent on regulatory approvals state by state. Lumos says more details will emerge as the year progresses. The bigger idea behind all of it is straightforward, even if the execution is complicated. People need help at the beginning of retirement, in the middle of it, and at the end of it—and those needs are connected. A carrier that can stay relevant across all three stages is more valuable than one that shows up once and disappears. For a company that spent 45 years staying close to borrowers through the life of a loan, that philosophy should feel familiar. The product just looks different now.

#############################

 

Updated Tuesday, March 17, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-007:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Medicare Advantage Reallocates Subsidies from the Sick to the Healthy

  • The Looming Crisis in Home Health Care

  • AARP Report Finds Long-Term Care Costs Outpacing Americans’ Incomes

  • OneAmerica Financial earns national LTC award

  • Reimagining long-term care through AI

  • Local Governments Play An Important Role In Medicaid Financing

  • [Column] Direction and Challenges of Long-Term Care Insurance System Reform

  • WA Cares needs to clarify family caregivers needn't be union members

  • Medicare Advantage: 14 Steps to a Better Program 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, March 9, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-006:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Number of hospice enrollees increased last year for third year in a row, report finds

  • In 2025, number of home health agencies ticked up, bucking trend, new chartbook says

  • America’s Dementia Care Crisis

  • CMS targets New York for home care fraud

  • Assisted living sees highest year-over-year growth compared with other areas of long-term care

  • 5 Retirement Planning Tips for Solo Agers

  • ‘Excellent evidence’ nursing home staffing mandates don’t cause financial harm: study

  • Unlocking Idle Annuities

  • 1 in 5 older adults would pick assisted living if they no longer can live alone: Pew survey 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, March 2, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-005:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Genworth's CareScout Unit Jumps Into the Aging Crisis

  • Recent Medicaid data release has research limitations, home care advocates say

  • Understanding Medicaid Home Care Amid CMS Focus on Potential Fraud and Abuse

  • Long-term care insurance mergers & acquisitions – What have we learned since 2023?

  • Economic uncertainty challenges retirement confidence among older adults: survey

  • As aid-in-dying laws come to more states, nursing homes face tough new decisions

  • NGL launches new long term care product

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Friday, February 27, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: SO WHAT IF THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR MOST LTC, 2024 DATA UPDATE

LTC Comment: Heads up! We're about to explain why long-term care insurance sales have disappointed, why people don't "use their homes to stay at home" and why LTC providers who depend on public financing are at risk. Details after the ***news.***

*** TODAY'S LTC BULLET is sponsored by Claude Thau (BackNine Insurance). BackNine gives you a free personalized website at no cost. Your clients (& family & friends) can, with as little or as much of your involvement as you or they want, buy life insurance and LTCi, and can speed issue by scheduling a paramed and uploading medical records immediately. We quote stand-alone LTCi, linked-benefit and life with a LTC rider side-by-side. Claude is the lead author of Milliman’s annual Broker World LTCi Survey & a past Chair of the Center for Long-Term Care Financing. Contact him at 913-707-8863 or claude@back9ins.com to learn about more great BackNine features and services. ***

*** ILTCI CONFERENCE: The big annual LTC insurance conference is coming up March 8-11 at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort in Orlando, Florida. Get all the latest information here. You’ll find the Session Schedule Matrix, and information on the Keynote Speaker, the Alzheimer’s Association Session, and much more. Read the session descriptions and get a general conference schedule outline. Get details on the CLTC Master Class and the Future Leaders Program. Organizers say:

Over the past 25 years: The ILTCI Conference has grown to be the nation’s largest gathering of the extended care industry’s top thought leaders. Professionals from all disciplines attend and participate in a concerted effort to broaden their knowledge, network, and bring more consumers to the table to plan for their long term care needs. Contributors and speakers share cutting-edge expert opinions and analysis covering diverse fields in our 7 tracks while exhibitors and sponsors showcase a broad range of solutions and advancements.

Register here.***

 

LTC BULLET: SO WHAT IF THE GOVERNMENT PAYS FOR MOST LTC, 2024 DATA UPDATE

LTC Comment: Once a year, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) reports health care expenditure data for the latest year of record. In January, CMS posted 2024 statistics on its website here. Click on this link NHE Tables (ZIP) to download the tables. Then, click on the ones of interest, Tables 13, 14 and 15 for our purposes here.

Health Affairs has published a summary and analysis of this new data titled “National Health Care Spending Increased 7.2 Percent In 2024 As Utilization Remained Elevated." The article is “open access” so available free here. Unfortunately, the Health Affairs article has little to say about long-term care beyond the raw data. This was the extent of it:

In 2024, mainly as a result of declining enrollment, all Medicaid services except home health care and nursing and residential care facilities experienced growth that was slower than growth in 2023. … Services used for long-term care (the population most likely to use this type of care was more likely to retain Medicaid coverage)—including other health, residential, and personal care services; home health care; and nursing and continuing care retirement communities—continued to experience strong growth in 2023 and 2024 (8.9 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively; data not shown).

Not much on LTC, but more than in past years. Note the surge in nursing home, home care, and residential care expenditures. Read on to get the rest of the story.

Following is our annual analysis of the latest long-term care expenditure data. Note that we added Table 13, “Other Health, Residential, and Personal Care Expenditures,” to our analysis starting two years ago. This category includes Medicaid home and community based waivers and care provided in residential care facilities, so it is a vital part of the LTC marketplace. We focused only on nursing home[1] and home health expenditures before.

Heads Up: This may be the most important LTC Bullet we publish all year. It is the twenty-fourth in a row we’ve done annually to analyze the federal government’s enormous, and we argue, often detrimental, impact on long-term care financing. If you'd like to see the earlier versions, go here and search for “So What if the Government Pays.” You’ll find our yearly analyses of the data going all the way back to "So What If the Government Pays for Most LTC, 2002 Data Update."

------------------

"So What If the Government Pays for Most LTC, 2024 Data Update"
by
Stephen A. Moses

Ever wonder why LTC insurance sales and market penetration are so discouraging? Or why reverse mortgages are rarely used to pay for long-term care? Or why LTC service providers are always struggling to survive financially and still provide quality care? Read on.

Nursing Homes

America spent 219.9 billion on nursing facilities and continuing care retirement communities in 2024, a 7.3% increase compared to 2023. The percentage of these costs paid by Medicaid and Medicare has gone up over the past half century (from 26.8% in 1970 to 57.4% in 2024, up 30.6% of the total) while out-of-pocket costs have declined in the same period (from 49.2% in 1970 to 22.1% in 2024, down 27.1% of the total). Source: Table 15: Nursing Care Facilities and Continuing Care Retirement Communities Expenditures; Levels, Percent Change, and Percent Distribution, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1970-2024.

So What? Consumers' liability for nursing home and CCRC costs has declined by almost half, down 44.9% in the past five decades while the share paid by Medicaid and Medicare has more than doubled, up 114.2%.

No wonder people are not as eager to buy LTC insurance as they would be if they were more at risk for the cost of their care! No wonder they don't use home equity for LTC when Medicaid exempts at least $752,000 and in some states up to $1,130,000 of home equity (as of 1/1/26. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) set a nationwide limit at $1 million starting January 1, 2028.) No wonder nursing homes struggle financially—their dependency on parsimonious government reimbursements is increasing while their more profitable private payers are disappearing.

Unfortunately, these problems are even worse than the preceding data suggest. Over half of the so-called "out-of-pocket" costs reported by CMS are really just contributions toward their cost of care by people already covered by Medicaid. These are not out-of-pocket costs in terms of ASSET spend down, but rather only INCOME, most of which comes from Social Security benefits, another financially vulnerable government program. Thus, although Medicaid pays a little more than one-third of the cost of nursing home (and CCRC) care (35.9% of the dollars in 2024), it covers over two-thirds (67.0%) of all nursing home patient days.

So What? Medicaid pays in full or subsidizes over two-thirds of all nursing home patient days. Even if Medicaid pays nothing, with the entire amount due contributed from the recipient's income, the nursing home receives Medicaid's dismally low reimbursement rate.

No wonder the public is not as worried about nursing home costs as they would be if they were more at risk for the cost of their care. No wonder nursing homes risk insolvency when so much of their revenue comes from Medicaid, often at reimbursement rates less than the cost of providing the care. Consider this for example: “We found that Medicaid payment rates for the average or median nursing home covered about 82 cents per every dollar of reported cost nursing homes incurred caring for Medicaid residents. For approximately 40% of nursing homes, Medicaid per diem payments covered 80% or less of their estimated per diem Medicaid costs." (Source: “In Case You Missed It: New HHS Report Reveals Significant Medicaid Shortfall For Nursing Homes,” AHCA/NCAL, October 22, 2024)

Private Health Insurance

Don't be fooled by the 8.8% of nursing home costs that CMS reports as having been paid by "private health insurance" in 2024. That category does not include private long-term care insurance. (See category definitions here.) No one knows how much LTC insurance pays toward nursing home care, because “In most cases, private long-term care insurance reimburses people for the expenses they pay out-of-pocket and would be classified as out-of-pocket spending in the NHE data.” (Priya Chidambaram and Alice Burns, “10 Things About Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS),” KFF, July 8, 2024) Thus, a large proportion of insurance payments for nursing home care gets reported as if it were "out-of-pocket" payments. This fact further inflates the out-of-pocket figure artificially.

Assisted Living

How does all this affect assisted living facilities? According to the Genworth Cost of Care Survey for 2024, median ALF cost was $70,800 per year ($5,900 per month), up 1.1% from 2023, but up 37.2% since 2020. Although assisted living facilities remain mostly private pay, almost half of ALFs were “authorized or certified” to participate in Medicaid and only “a small minority of state Medicaid programs do not cover services in assisted living.” Furthermore, “Almost 1 in 5 residents relies on Medicaid to pay for daily services (18%).” (Find these latter two quotes under the source’s “Finance” tab.) Over time, assisted living facilities have followed nursing homes down the primrose path of accepting more and more revenue from Medicaid.

Many people who could afford assisted living by spending down their illiquid wealth, especially home equity, choose instead to take advantage of Medicaid nursing home benefits. Medicaid exempts one home and all contiguous property (up to $752,000 or $1,130,000 depending on the state), plus—in unlimited dollar amounts—one business, one automobile, prepaid burials, term life insurance, household furnishings, personal belongings and Individual Retirement Accounts not to mention wealth protected by sophisticated asset sheltering and divestment techniques marketed by Medicaid planning attorneys. Income rarely interferes with Medicaid nursing home eligibility unless such income exceeds the cost of private nursing home care.

So What? For most people, Medicaid nursing home benefits are easy to obtain without spending down assets significantly and Medicaid's income contribution requirement is usually much less expensive than paying the full cost of assisted living.

No wonder ALFs are struggling to attract enough private payers to be profitable. No wonder people are not as eager to buy LTC insurance as they would be if they were more at risk for the cost of their care. This problem has radically worsened in recent years because more and more state Medicaid programs are paying for assisted living as well as nursing home care, which makes Medicaid eligibility more desirable than ever.

Home Health Care

The situation with home health care financing is very similar to nursing home financing. According to CMS, America spent $169.4 billion on home health care in 2024, 10.3% more than in 2023 ($153.6). Medicare (32.9%) and Medicaid (22.5%) paid 55.4% of this total and private health insurance (not LTC insurance) paid 22.0%. Only 17.9% of home health care costs were paid out of pocket. The remainder came from several small public and private financing sources. Data source: Table 14: Home Health Care Services Expenditures; Levels, Percent Change, and Percent Distribution, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1970-2024.

So What? Only one out of every six dollars spent on home health care comes out of the pockets of patients and a large portion of that comes from the income (not assets) of people already on Medicaid.

No wonder the public does not feel the sense of urgency about this risk that they would if they were more personally at risk for the cost of their care.

Other Health, Residential, and Personal Care

This category includes a lot of long-term care spending that is not encompassed by the nursing home and home health NHE categories, such as Medicaid home and community based waivers and care provided in residential care facilities. The trends are very similar. Americans spent $320.5 billion on these services in 2024, up 9.1% from $293.7 billion in 2023. Medicare (1.4%) and Medicaid (62.4%) paid 63.8% of that total; private health insurance and other third parties contributed 31.5%; out-of-pocket expenditures amounted to only 3.5%. Data Source: Table 13: Other Health, Residential, and Personal Care Services Expenditures: Levels, Percent Change, and Percent Distribution, by Source of Funds: Selected Calendar Years 1970-2022

So what? Only one dollar out of $29 spent on these important LTC services comes out of the pocket of a private payer.

No wonder the public feels so little sense of worry about planning, saving, investing or insuring for long-term care.

Summary

                                        

Source: National Health Expenditures[2]

Across all three kinds of LTC services out-of-pocket expenditures account for only $1 in $7.87 spent. Half of this spending comes from income of people already on Medicaid. Thus only 6.35%, or $1 in $15.74 could have come from spend down of savings.

Bottom line, people only buy insurance against real financial risk. As long as they can ignore the risk, avoid the premiums, and get government to pay for their long-term care when and if such care is needed, they will remain in denial about the need for LTC insurance. As long as Medicaid and Medicare are paying for a huge proportion of all nursing home and home health care costs while out-of-pocket expenditures remain only nominal, nursing homes and home health agencies will remain starved for financial oxygen.

The solution is simple. Target Medicaid financing of long-term care to the needy and use the savings to fund education and tax incentives to encourage the public to plan early to be able to pay privately for long-term care. For ideas and recommendations on how to implement this solution, see www.centerltc.com.

Note especially:

Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less,” Cato Institute (2025)

Medicaid’s $100 Billion Plus Leak,” Paragon Health Institute (2024)

Long-Term Care: The Solution” (2023) with the Paragon Health Institute at https://paragoninstitute.org/research-paper-page-moses-ltc-solution-20231002/

Long-Term Care: The Problem” (2022) with the Paragon Health Institute at

https://paragoninstitute.org/long-term-care-the-problem/

Medicaid and Long-Term Care” (2020) at http://www.centerltc.com/pubs/Medicaid_and_Long-Term_Care.pdf

How to Fix Long-Term Care Financing” (2017), at http://www.centerltc.com/pubs/How-To-Fix-Long-Term-Care-Financing.pdf

In the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, Congress took some significant steps toward addressing these problems. A cap was placed for the first time on Medicaid's home equity exemption and several of the more egregious Medicaid planning abuses were ended. But much more remains to be done. With the Age Wave cresting and threatening to crash over the next two decades, we can only hope it isn't too late already.

Stephen A. Moses is president of the Center for Long-Term Care Reform in Seattle, Washington and a Visiting Fellow with The Paragon Health Institute. The LTC Center's mission is to ensure quality long-term care for all Americans. Steve Moses writes, speaks and consults throughout the United States on long-term care policy. Learn more at www.centerltc.com or email smoses@centerltc.com.

############################


 

[1] Note that CMS changed the definition of National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) categories in 2011, adding for example Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) to Nursing Care Facilities. This change had the effect of reducing Medicaid's reported contribution to the cost of nursing home care from over 40% in 2008 to under one-third (32.8%) in 2009. CMS also created a new category called "Other Third Party Payers" (7.1%) which includes "worksite health care, other private revenues, Indian Health Service, workers' compensation, general assistance, maternal and child health, vocational rehabilitation, other federal programs, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, other state and local programs, and school health." For definitions of all NHEA categories, see http://www.cms.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/quickref.pdf.

[2] For definitions of all National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) categories, see http://www.cms.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/quickref.pdf.

 

#############################

 

Updated Wednesday, February 25, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-004:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Number of hospice providers rises 39.6 percent between 2019 and 2024, report finds

  • Americans Remain At Elevated Risk Despite Broad Plan Participation

  • 2026 Predictions: LTC Will Be King Again

  • Hidebound scholars harm long-term care

  • Medicaid’s Multiple Roles

  • Washington finalizes long-term care insurance rules for WA Cares

  • What Happens When the Social Security Trust Fund Is Exhausted: An Alternative Contingency Policy

  • Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023

  • The Current Market For Long-Term Care Planning

  • Medicaid Closes Tax Loophole, Saving Billions for Taxpayers

  • Low state rates undermine nursing home quality, especially at Medicaid-reliant for-profits

  • $10,000 a Month for Parents’ Long-Term Care Is a Growing Crisis—Who Can Afford to Pay?

  • Millions Misspent: How Maine Lost Control of Autism Medicaid Spending

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, February 23, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-003:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • The Health Care Cost Curve Is Bending up Again

  • New tool ultimately could open up senior living to more people

  • Cleaning Up Medicaid Fraud Will Save Indiana Millions of Dollars – Governor

  • My Mother Has $260k in an IRA. Is a Nursing Home Able to Take It?

  • The long term care shake-up: What Unum’s exit really signals for 2026

  • Low state rates undermine nursing home quality, especially at Medicaid-reliant for-profits

  • Milliman launches Long-Term Care Index, providing a benchmark for expected lifetime long-term care costs

  • What Older Americans Want Policymakers To Know

  • Ross Schriftman Announces Run for Wyoming House District 37

  • With no way to account for MA pressures, MedPAC recommends a 4% pay cut for nursing homes

  • How Did We Build a Welfare System that Gave So Much Money Away?

  • National Health Care Spending Increased 7.2 Percent In 2024 As Utilization Remained Elevated

  • New York’s Per Capita Home Health Aide Workforce Is Three Times Greater Than Other States’ Average

  • Greater assisted living capacity may delay nursing home placement for older adults with dementia, study finds

  • US nursing home capacity declines twice as steep as estimated: JAMA study

  • Minnesota to freeze new Medicaid provider enrollments in 13 high-risk categories

  • A multi-billion euro shortfall in long-term care insurance – what critics warned about before its introduction is now coming to pass 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, January 12, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-002:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Pervasive Fraud in Government Health Care Programs

  • ‘Far fewer people’ receive institutional services than HCBS, CMS says

  • Guiding Families Through The Great Wealth Transfer

  • Some Older Adults May Qualify for a New $6,000 Tax Break

  • Medicaid’s Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025

  • Retirement Planning Without Kids Demands Attention to Long-Term Care and Estate Strategies

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Friday, January 9, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: HOW REAL IS MEDICAID ASSET SPEND DOWN?

LTC Comment: Does Medicaid asset spend down devastate everyone who needs long-term care or does it crush the poor, but exempt the well-to-do? We explore; you decide; after the ***news.***

*** ARGENTINA: Damon and I are about to take a rare vacation together. There will be a hiatus in our regular bi-weekly LTC Bullets and weekly LTC E-Alerts, but we will continue to send our daily LTC Clippings. We’re headed to Bariloche, Argentina from which we’ll journey by public transportation through Patagonia to Ushuaia, South America’s southernmost city, then on by ship to Antarctica. In the meantime, we’ll have full phone and internet connectivity, so keep your comments and questions coming. The Center for Long-Term Care Reform’s initiatives on behalf of responsible LTC financing policy will resume fully upon our return. ***

*** VENEZUELA: Fifty-eight years ago I arrived in Caracas, Venezuela with thirty fellow Peace Corps volunteers to begin a two-year stint in an agricultural reform program. Venezuela had experienced its first ever peaceful, democratic transition of government only ten years before. Yet it seemed like there were teenagers with submachine guns on every corner. Rumor  (untrue) had it that two PC volunteers had been shot and killed recently after accidentally running a police checkpoint. It was like the wild west for this newly minted Poli Sci BA and my now-late-wife, Judith. We settled in to our site three hours by bus from Caracas with water we had to boil, electricity only four hours at night, and little access to groceries beyond bodegas selling beer, sardines and a hard cheese we were told not to eat. When the Venezuelan agricultural extensionist and home demonstrator we were supposed to back up didn’t make an appearance, we improvised, teaching in the elementary school, working with kids in a 5V club (like 4H), and building furniture (me) and teaching sewing (Judy). Two kids, Vidal (10 years), now my son’s middle name, and Dolores, aka “Goofy,” (8 years) hung out at our house most of the time. Fifty years later, Dolores, who at the time lived in a mud house, but is now a nun in Colombia, tracked me down on the internet. We had a reunion a couple years ago in Bogota and we stay in touch. So, imagine my chagrin watching Venezuela collapse economically over the past decades causing untold misery for the people in Carmen de Cura, Estado Aragua, with whom I worked and got to know so well. I hope their long repression and suffering will end at last with the departure of Maduros and the death, hopefully, of Chavismo, although so much remains at risk. Viva Venezuela Libre! ***

 

LTC BULLET: HOW REAL IS MEDICAID ASSET SPEND DOWN

LTC Comment:  How real is Medicaid asset spend down? It’s a critical question. If, as the conventional wisdom holds, people all across America are spending down their life’s savings on LTC before they get any help from Medicaid, we have one kind of problem. It cries out for even more government money and regulation, the usual appeal.

But if Medicaid asset spend down only crushes the poor and financially marginal people while giving the middle class and affluent an asset-spend-down off ramp, as I believe, the problem is totally different. That suggests we should reconfigure government LTC spending so it helps the needy first without discouraging everyone else from planning privately to meet LTC risk.

The Center for Long-Term Care Reform has tackled the Medicaid asset spend down question many times over the years. See, for example, most recently, “Understanding Medicaid Spend Down,” July 12, 2024. Or check out the rest of our 15 “Medicaid Spend Down Bullets” dating back to June 15, 1999. I summarized the issue in a paper titled “The Myth of Medicaid Spend-Down” in 1991. But today, let’s take a fresh look at the spend down issue.

On December 4, 2025, JAMA Network Open published “Asset Spend-Down and Medicaid Enrollment in Nursing Homes,” by Gabriella Aboulafia, MPP1; Amanda C. Chen, PhD, and David C. Grabowski, PhD. I sent the following letter to the article’s “corresponding author,” Ms. Aboulafia. Later I received a thoughtful response from one of the other authors, the influential, virtually omnipresent scholar, David Grabowski. I urge you to read the subject article and my letter. Dr. Grabowski’s feedback and my reply to him may be a topic for another time if he agrees. In the meantime, here’s my letter. Your comments are welcome.

December 16, 2025 

Gabriella Aboulafia, MPP
Corresponding Author
“Asset Spend-Down and Medicaid Enrollment in Nursing Homes”
JAMA Network Open

 

Dear Dr. Aboulafia,

I am writing in response to your article titled “Asset Spend-Down and Medicaid Enrollment in Nursing Homes” published December 4, 2025 in JAMA Network Open.

In that article, you and your co-authors addressed the issue of nursing home asset spend-down leading to Medicaid eligibility. You explain that your “main outcome was whether an individual spent down their assets and became enrolled in Medicaid during their nursing home stay.” (p. 1/11) You define “spend-down in nursing homes as a transition from non-Medicaid enrolled to Medicaid enrolled.” (p. 3/11)  You conclude: “Of those who were initially not Medicaid enrolled, 16.4% spent down their assets during their stay and enrolled in Medicaid ….” (p. 1/11) You infer: “This finding raises concerns both about individuals impoverishing themselves because of the high cost of care and the long-term financial sustainability of the Medicaid program.” (p. 1/11) Although it is not stated explicitly in your article, the clear implication is that people spend down their assets for private nursing home or other care before becoming eligible for Medicaid. That is not necessarily true.

There are many ways for middle class and affluent people to “transition from non-Medicaid enrolled to Medicaid enrolled” without expending their assets for long-term care (LTC). While Medicaid has a very low limit on countable assets, usually $2,000, most large assets seniors own are exempt, such as home equity, retirement savings, a vehicle and many more. Excess countable assets are easily excluded from consideration by using them to purchase exempt resources as I explain in “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak.” Besides this simple method of artificial self-impoverishment, Medicaid planning specialists use special irrevocable income-only trusts, Medicaid compliant annuities, and other legal techniques to qualify much wealthier people for Medicaid. Your article does mention one method of “shielding assets,” but as you point out, asset transfers are rare and small compared to the commonplace practices just described.

You observe that “individuals who once spent their savings on nursing home care now may deplete their assets in the assisted living sector and then transition to a nursing home at or near Medicaid eligibility.” (p. 8/11) That is true, but the same methods people use to qualify for Medicaid without spending down assets while institutionalized are equally effective while they remain in the community. In fact, Medicaid planners routinely advise families to reconfigure their loved one’s income and assets long before care is needed. They do this not to ensure Medicaid eligibility upon nursing home admission. Rather, paying privately for a short time before converting to Medicaid ensures access to top-quality care. The best nursing homes and home health agencies compete aggressively for private patients who pay on average 150 percent of the Medicaid reimbursement rate. By retaining “key money” in this way, middle class and affluent people lock in access to better nursing homes than poor and financially borderline individuals, who lack resources to pay privately for a while, can obtain.

Transition to Medicaid LTC eligibility does not necessarily involve expending assets for care. The peer-reviewed literature you cite rarely acknowledges this fact, but the evidence adduced above establishes it. Assuming transition to Medicaid requires high private spending leads to unfounded assumptions about ruinous LTC spending that I rebut in “The Fallacy of Impoverishment,” “Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less” and “Long-Term Care: The Solution.” I respectfully invite you to consider these points and I would welcome the opportunity to discuss them with you.

Sincerely

Steve Moses 

Stephen A. Moses
President, Center for Long-Term Care Reform
smoses@centerltc.com
425-891-3640

#############################

 

Updated Monday, January 05, 2026, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #26-001:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • What Medicaid Cuts Could Mean for Home Care Workers and Family Caregivers

  • Study: Adults in community with dementia at high risk of being bedbound at life’s end

  • Medicaid Money Laundering Harms Long-Term Care

  • What you need to know about changes to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in 2026

  • They said it best in long-term care in 2025

  • Retirement Planning Without Kids Means Focusing On Long-Term Care And Estate Strategies

  • I’m a CEO who’s spent nearly 40 years talking to presidents, lawmakers and leaders about our long-term care crisis. They knew this moment was coming 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, December 22, 2025, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #25-045:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • ‘Spend-down’ rates among nursing home residents rise with longer stays, study finds

  • Interactive Compendium of LTSS Financing Options

  • Census Bureau: Americans 55+ comprise fastest-growing age group of workers in US

  • Long-term-care financing: Some good changes to WA Cares, new area of recommendation needed

  • Dave Ramsey's Take on Long-Term Care Planning Is Wrong

  • Better Care for Billions Less: Fixing Medicaid’s Long-Term Care Incentives

  • The Local Loop: How States Turn Medicaid into a Government Provider Payday Scheme

  • New Poll: Most Americans Expect Social Security Benefit Cuts; a Third Believe the Program Won’t Exist When They Retire 

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Friday, December 19, 2025, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: THE GOLDILOCKS LTC PLAN

LTC Comment: Making Medicaid pay first would blow the lid off government LTC spending, but that’s their plan. We explain after the ***news.***

*** ILTCI NEWS from the 2026 conference organizers: “We're thrilled to announce that Jeff Noel, a 30-year Disney leadership veteran and two-time Disney Lifetime Achievement Award recipient, will take the stage as our keynote speaker, Sponsored by NGL, at the 2026 ILTCI Conference!” For many more details about this keynoter, go here. ***

*** MORE about ILTCI: “Our in-person conference March 8-11, 2026 at the Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando, FL is now accepting attendee registrations! As always, our agenda will include numerous educational sessions over two days across seven tracks with ample time for networking and reconnecting with colleagues. Everyone who's anyone in Long Term Care Planning will be there. What about your company? Early Bird Attendee Pricing available thru Jan 16, 2026! ***

*** CATO PODCAST with Center president Steve Moses published:

12/11/2025, “Better Care for Billions Less: Fixing Medicaid’s Long-Term Care Incentives,” by Michael Cannon and Stephen Moses, Cato

Quote: “Cato’s Michael Cannon and the Center for Long-Term Care Reform’s Stephen Moses examine how Medicaid’s long-term-care eligibility rules let middle- and upper-middle-class households shelter assets and shift costs onto taxpayers, driving up spending and lowering quality for the poor. Drawing on Moses’s new Cato paper Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less, they explain how perverse incentives, generous exemptions, and weak estate recovery undermine private planning and inflate a program already consuming one-third of Medicaid’s budget.”

LTC Comment: Click through to the link at the top to hear this 45-minute podcast. Then, please read the paper and send any questions or comments to smoses@centerltc.com. To join our mission to fix LTC financing policy and ensure quality long-term care for all Americans, click here. To review all of our individual and corporate “Membership Levels and Benefits,” go here. Thanks for your support. ***

 

LTC BULLET: THE GOLDILOCKS LTC PLAN

LTC Comment: A recent LTC Discussion Group presentation triggered my interest. Karen Kopecky, an Economic and Policy Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, proposed a radical reform of Medicaid long-term care financing. Her plan, co-authored with another economist, involves making Medicaid “primary,” that is, first payer for long-term care. It’s an intriguing idea. If Medicaid paid first, consumers would be more likely to buy private LTC insurance to “top off,” ending “crowd out.” So I contacted Dr. Kopecky. We had a cordial exchange of views. Here’s my bottom line takeaway. I thank the Paragon Health Institute’s Niklas Kleinworth for his helpful editing of this piece.

“The Goldilocks LTC Plan”
by
Stephen A. Moses

Two economists offer an ingenious proposal to improve long-term care (LTC) financing: make Medicaid the first payer for services. That is, have it pay before private LTC insurance so that more people will top off with private coverage. Their plan rests on a common, but false premise, that LTC causes widespread ruinous asset spend down leading to Medicaid eligibility. The plan would be dangerous and expensive if Medicaid financial eligibility is not tightened substantially first.

In “Welfare-enhancing public and private insurance arrangements for long-term care risk,” economists R. Anton Braun and Karen A. Kopecky explain the LTC financing challenge like the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears. First, they reject two common approaches to reform. Slashing Medicaid would please taxpayers, but hurt the poor. That porridge is too cold, morally. Universal LTC coverage would help the poor, but disadvantage taxpayers. That porridge is too hot, politically. The authors position their third reform as the happy medium. In their own words:

Under our reform, benefits continue to be means-tested, but Medicaid is the primary payer. This third scenario works best. The poor continue to receive free public insurance, the middle class top up their Medicaid benefits with private insurance and enjoy higher welfare and private insurance takeup and profits also increase. (p. 3) … Making Medicaid the primary payer for LTC insurance while retaining the means-test increases private LTCI takeup rates, increases the profitability of insurers, and increases the welfare of low-, middle-, and high-income individuals. (p. 33)

On its face, this third concoction seems just right. But there’s a fly in this gruel.

The salutary outcomes predicted for reform number 3 depend on strictly means testing Medicaid benefits. Otherwise, everyone would use up Medicaid’s primary benefits and never get to the point of wanting or needing private insurance. Medicaid costs would explode and the private LTC insurance market would disappear entirely.

Thus, we need to know what these authors believe about means testing Medicaid LTC eligibility and whether their assumptions are correct. They say Medicaid benefits are only available to people with very low income and less than $3,000 in assets. They conclude “most Americans use their savings to pay for formal long-term care services” leaving “middle-class elderly Americans particularly exposed to LTC risk.” Consequently, they claim one in ten Americans incur out-of-pocket (OOP) nursing home expenses of $200,000 or more.

That clearly expresses the conventional wisdom about Medicaid spend down. But is it true? Demonstrably not.

The following table shows that only 12.9 percent of U.S. LTC expenditures are paid out of pocket. The vast majority (87.1 percent) come from government programs (especially Medicaid and Medicare) and other third parties. Furthermore, half of the out-of-pocket spending comes not from assets, but from the income people already on Medicaid contribute to offset the program’s cost for their care. Consequently, only 6.5 percent — or about $41 billion — of LTC spending could come from asset spend down. That is too small a portion to support claims that one in ten Americans spend down their assets at catastrophically high rates.

Table: Out of Pocket Contributions are a Small Share of Overall LTC Spending

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, National Health Expenditures. For definitions of all National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) categories, see http://www.cms.gov/NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/quickref.pdf.

Why then do scholars think out-of-pocket asset spend down is so much higher than the facts bear out? Faulty estimates based on statistical micro-simulations are the cause. Ignoring the nonexistence of evidence, they presume falsely that people must spend down assets privately for care before qualifying for Medicaid. They run the numbers through their simulator and voila, catastrophic LTC asset spend down estimates emerge.

There is a better explanation of how America spends so much on LTC annually ($629.3 billion), but individual Americans contribute so little ($40.9 billion) out of pocket. If people with high incomes and assets qualify easily for Medicaid LTC benefits without spending down, the paradox of high LTC costs overall combined with low individual asset spend down would be resolved.

Medicaid Income and Asset Eligibility

High income does not prevent Medicaid LTC eligibility. Most states subtract private medical and LTC expenses from income before they apply a low-income standard. Others cap income but allow special income diversion trusts to achieve the same outcome. Bottom line: high income people with commensurately high health care expenses qualify.

Likewise high assets do not interfere with Medicaid LTC eligibility. Most large assets seniors own are exempt, including $1 million of home equity and unlimited tax-deferred retirement savings, a business, a vehicle, and others. Any remaining countable wealth is easily made exempt by using it to purchase exempt assets.

The internet and Medicaid planners offer long lists of exempt assets into which Medicaid applicants can convert countable resources in order to become eligible without decreasing their wealth. Mandatory estate recovery goes largely unenforced so resources protected by Medicaid pass to heirs further desensitizing future generations to LTC risk and cost.

The Goldilocks LTC Plan

So, what can we conclude about the Goldilocks LTC Plan? Make Medicaid primary? That would be a disaster unless or until Medicaid’s lenient LTC financial eligibility rules are reformed. But fix that so that people really do have to spend down their wealth before becoming eligible for Medicaid and the Goldilocks plan would no longer be needed. If Medicaid truly required impoverishment to qualify, people would realize the potential financial devastation that would ensue if they ever needed high-cost long-term care and they would begin to plan early to save, invest or insure privately for LTC.

If that porridge is too cold, then try this: keep Medicaid income and asset eligibility limits generous, but strictly enforce estate recoveries so that eventually all wealth sheltered in exempt assets is returned to the program to help those truly in need. That would relieve taxpayers, end Medicaid’s windfall for heirs, and return dignity to recipients—it isn’t welfare if you pay it back. It would create a much stronger incentive for all Americans to take LTC risk and cost seriously in time to prepare.

Real progress toward resolving long-term care’s many problems will not be made until scholars, analysts and policymakers set aside the “Fallacy of Impoverishment” and deal with the reality of Medicaid’s true impact. The program desensitizes the public to LTC risk and cost leaving most Americans unprotected and reliant on Medicaid when high LTC costs occur. That’s fixable with public policy reform that saves money, eliminates bad incentives, and rewards thoughtful LTC planning. When worsening budget constraints compel lower LTC spending, drastic change will become inevitable. Far better to do it now before the fiscal vise closes narrowing options ever further.

#############################

 

Updated Monday, December 15, 2025, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #25-044:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • The Childfree Care Crisis

  • Medicaid pays 82 cents on the dollar. That hurts these nursing homes most

  • With inflation, older adults are depleting retirement savings earlier than expected, survey finds

  • Older adults face high risks of mortality, institutionalization after hip-fracture surgery, study finds

  • Asset Spend-Down and Medicaid Enrollment in Nursing Homes

  • BREAKING NEWS: CMS shares updated Medicaid income, resource standards

  • Medicare Advantage 2026 Spotlight: A First Look at Plan Offerings

  • Trump said he’s looking into an Australian-style retirement program for America. Here’s how it works

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Monday, December 8, 2025, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—

#############################

LTC E-ALERT #25-043:  LTC NEWS AND COMMENT

LTC Comment:  Do you spend hours searching the internet for useful articles, key data, and relevant reports to keep you on the forefront of professional knowledge?  Do you lose business because you’re blindsided by clients or competitors who learn critical information before you do?  Here’s an antidote:

LTC Clippings:  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform notifies subscribers to our LTC Clippings service daily of information you need to know.  Each message contains only the critical facts about new publications:  a title, representative quote, a link to the original, and our analysis in a sentence or two.  To inquire or subscribe, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  Read testimonials by satisfied subscribers here.  To subscribe online, please click here.

LTC E-Alerts:  Once a week, we compile our daily LTC Clippings into a summary, email it to Center for Long-Term Care Reform members, and archive it in The Zone, our password-protected members-only website.  Center members also receive our weekly LTC Bullet op-ed.  To join the Center and receive all these benefits and more, contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.  

We no longer post our LTC E-Alerts on the Center’s public access website, but here’s what today’s LTC E-Alert contained:  links, quotes and comments on the following articles, reports, or data:

  • Healthcare gains 33,000 jobs in November as overall economy sheds 32,000

  • A smaller share of older U.S. adults live alone today than in 1990

  • Reforming Long-Term Care Policy

  • 6 Long-Term Care Rate Increases Hidden in Winter Renewal Contracts

  • Affordability, Elder Financial Abuse, and Estate Planning

  • Study Reveals The Age You Hit The 'Tipping Point' Into Frailty

  • 5 Key Facts About Medicaid and Provider Taxes

  • Your Parents' Long-Term Care Could Cost $10,000 a Month—Who's Really Going to Pay?

  • As pressures mount, so do involuntary nursing home discharges. Here’s how providers should approach them

  • New AHIP Report Highlights the Vital Role of Long-Term Care Insurance in Each State

  • 7 ESSENTIALS in every Short-Term Care (Extended Care) & Home Health Care Plan

  • Dangers of Ignoring Long-Term Care Conversations with Clients

  • Senior Living Satisfaction

  • My Wife and I Planned Our Retirement Perfectly. Then She Got Sick.

  • OOPS: How the collapse of out-of-pocket long-term care spending hurts senior living

  • A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

  • Satisfaction with senior living up despite increasing rates, 2025 J.D. Power study finds

  • Nursing homes singled out in annual Justice report on elder abuse

  • Medicare Part B Premiums to Jump 9.7% in 2026

  • Family caregivers of people with Alzheimer’s fail to grasp agitation, survey finds

  • Medicare Advantage enrollment among long-stay residents grows by more than 180% between 2010 and 2023, report finds

#############################

"LTC E-Alerts" are a feature offered by the Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. to members at the $150 per year level or higher.  We'll track and report to you news and analysis regarding long-term care financing, service delivery, and research.  We hope The LTC E-Alerts will help you attain and maintain a high level of knowledge and competency in this complex field.  The Center for Long-Term Care Reform, Inc. is a private institute dedicated to ensuring quality LTC for all Americans (www.centerltc.com).

#############################

 

Updated Friday, December 5, 2025, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: THE $97 TRILLION LTC PARADOX

LTC Comment: Public policy incentivizes accumulating wealth, but discourages spending it on private long-term care (LTC). We explain after the ***news.***

*** REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN for the 2026 Intercompany Long Term Care Insurance (ILTCI) Conference! Organizers report: “Our in-person conference March 8-11, 2026 at the Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando, FL is now accepting attendee registrations! As always, our agenda will include numerous educational sessions over two days across seven tracks with ample time for networking and reconnecting with colleagues. Everyone who's anyone in Long Term Care Planning will be there. What about your company? Early Bird Attendee Pricing available now!” Damon and I will be there to work and cover the conference, respectively. Register here. ***

*** MORE ILTCI NEWS: 2026 Session Titles & Descriptions announced. “The wait is over! Our amazing Program & Education Committee has put together a stellar lineup of sessions for 2026. These 48 sessions will be scheduled for Monday and Tuesday of the conference. Click this link to see the full list, descriptions, and a one page PDF you can share with your friends and coworkers.” PLUS THIS: Alzheimer's Association Session Announced. Learn how lifestyle interventions can reduce the risk of cognitive impairment, how blood-based biomarkers are enabling earlier, more accessible Alzheimer’s diagnosis and advancements in treatments. The second half of this session will provide a comprehensive overview of rapidly moving innovations within dementia care specialty models including both Medicare and Medicare Advantage funded approaches. Be sure to add this Wednesday morning session to your plans!”

*** STC GAINS ACCEPTANCE as Dennis Rinner of GoldenCareUSA explains in this article that we highlighted in the following LTC Clipping last week. LTC Clippings are a daily feature we bring to Center for LTC Reform premium members. Steve Moses tracks the news and analysis bearing on LTC issues of all kinds. He cites the source, pulls a representative quote, and gives his interpretation of important articles, reports, and news items. To join the Center and get access to our LTC Clippings, LTC Bullets, LTC E-Alerts and our members-only website, go to https://centerltc.com/support/index.htm or contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com.

10/30/2025, “7 ESSENTIALS in every Short-Term Care (Extended Care) & Home Health Care Plan,” by Dennis Rinner, GoldenCareUSA

Quote: “In the last couple years, there has been a major paradigm shift in the extended care product space: The landscape is changing. Agents and consumers (in particular, seniors) are aligned in demanding products that are more consumer and senior friendly. Everyone wants:

1. Less Underwriting … 2. Less Complicated … 3. Less Costly …Shorter-duration plans can be more flexible, are significantly lower in cost (more affordable than LTC alternatives), but they can still be comprehensive in the amount of coverage clients can select. … Let’s take a closer look at these seven essentials:

  1. State Availability
  2. Underwriting
  3. Unisex Rates
  4. Discounts
  5. Included Features (Built-In Choices)
  6. Add-On Features (Riders)
  7. Value Proposition”

LTC Comment: Click through for all the details in this excellent review of the new world of extended care coverage. Dennis Rinner has the real world experience and GoldenCareUSA has the wide reach to support agents and consumers in the STC and LTC space throughout the country. ***
 

LTC BULLET: THE $97 TRILLION LTC PARADOX

LTC Comment: Last January I had this insight. The United States government encourages Americans to save and invest. Public policy rewards putting money aside for retirement, building home equity, and amassing life insurance cash value. But the same government’s policies—ironically and counterintuitively—discourage spending that accumulated wealth for high-quality private long-term care. As a result, most Americans who face elevated LTC expenditures end up on Medicaid, a means-tested public welfare program. How can that be, I wondered. What are the consequences for care access and quality? Could different policies make better use of America’s vast wealth to improve its dysfunctional LTC system?

That puzzle and those questions led me to draft the following paper. It became the basis for a vastly revised “Policy Analysis” titled “Better Long-Term Care for Billions Less,” published November 13, 2025 by the Cato Institute. Because the piece published by Cato is very different from the original draft, focusing mostly on different points, I want to make the original available to LTC Bullets readers. Here it is.

“The $97 Trillion LTC Paradox”
by
Stephen A. Moses

Executive Summary

Government motivates personal asset accumulation with generous tax incentives. But it discourages spending the amassed wealth on long-term care (LTC), the single biggest financial risk aging Americans face. This contradictory policy undercuts LTC service delivery by relying too heavily on inadequate public financing. Resolving it in favor of more private LTC financing would reduce Medicaid expenditures by billions of dollars and simultaneously expand tax revenues from increased commercial activity. This paper explains why and how.

Contradictory Policies

Many government laws and regulations encourage private wealth accumulation in retirement savings, home equity, and life insurance. Tax-favored programs like IRAs and 401(k)s reward people for setting aside retirement funds. The federal government promotes home ownership with subsidized mortgages (FHA, VA, USDA), mortgage-interest tax deductions, and down payment assistance, enabling owners to grow equity. Life insurance receives favorable treatment through tax-deferred growth of cash value and tax-free death benefits. Thanks to these policies, Americans hold trillions of dollars in retirement savings ($40T),[1] home equity ($35T),[2] and life insurance ($22T),[3] $97 trillion in total for these resources alone. But little of this enormous wealth goes to pay for the potentially catastrophic cost of LTC. How can that be?

LTC includes the long-term services and supports people require when they cannot perform basic activities of daily living without assistance. Such assistance may be needed due to injury, illness, frailty, cognitive impairment or old age. The need grows exponentially as America’s vulnerable aging population surges. Most of what we read about LTC in the popular and academic literature presumes that people all across the country are spending huge sums of money on nursing homes, assisted living facilities, and long-term home care. See for example the “Dying Broke” series by the New York Times and KFF.[4] The media tell us that many people spend down their life’s savings for this commonplace, unavoidable and supposedly uncompensated expense. In truth, the most reliable evidence shows that widespread, ruinous LTC spend down does not occur. What really happens?

LTC Financing

As the following table shows, government paid for most of the $629 billion America spent on LTC in 2023. Medicaid covered 44 percent and Medicare, 16 percent. Private insurance paid nine percent and other public and private sources, 17 percent. Thus, third parties covered the vast majority of all LTC expenses, 87 percent. Personal out-of-pocket spending (OOP)  accounted for only 13 percent. As explained below, half of OOP came from income contributed mandatorily by people already on Medicaid, not from personal assets. Only six or seven percent of the entire cost of LTC could possibly come from spend down of private savings. At roughly $40 billion, out-of-pocket asset spend down barely nicks the tip of the nearly $100 trillion private wealth iceberg.

Source: National Health Expenditures*

Table: 2023 Total LTC Spending by Type and Source in Billions of Dollars with the Percentage Increase Since 2022[5]

*  For definitions of all National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) categories, see LINK.

How can it be that private wealth is largely off the table for financing LTC? For one thing, paid LTC services are far less common than many believe. Fifty-five percent of people who reach age 65 will not require any paid LTC. Thirty-one percent will need two years or less.[6] Those shorter term needs do fall largely on the public, but they are manageable. Johnson and Wang found that “Nearly nine in ten older adults have enough resources, including income and wealth, to cover assisted living expenses for two years.”[7]

It is the remaining 14 percent of paid LTC lasting two years or more, especially the 4 percent lasting over five years, that incur crushing outlays due to the high cost of care. Median rates for nursing homes are $320 per day for a private room and $285 for a semi-private room; assisted living runs $5,350 per month; homemaker and home health aide services, $30 and $33 per hour, respectively.[8] Paid LTC need lasting for long periods at those high rates is clearly unaffordable by a public largely uninsured privately for the risk. So, as there is no evidence of widespread catastrophic private LTC spend down, we must focus on who or what pays instead and how exactly the public avoids this huge liability.

Medicaid’s LTC Financing Role

Medicaid pays for most of the longest, most expensive LTC needs. However, the public welfare program’s 44 percent share ($278 billion) of total 2023 LTC expenditures ($629 billion) understates its full impact on the service delivery system. Medicaid recipients are required to contribute most of their personal income (upwards of half of OOP), including their Social Security benefits (41% of OOP), to offset Medicaid’s cost for their care.[9] This supplemental private revenue makes the cost of Medicaid look smaller and out-of-pocket expenditures appear higher. After co-opting their private revenue in this way, Medicaid underpays LTC providers, reimbursing them on average only 70 percent of the rates they would otherwise have received from private payers.[10] The combined impact of Medicaid’s commandeering half of total out-of-pocket LTC spending, approximately $40 billion worth of private income, and then paying LTC providers often less than the cost of supplying the care[11] has had a devastating impact on LTC access and quality. Resulting meager wages worsen the nationwide shortage of paid caregivers. By dominating LTC financing while paying sub-market rates, Medicaid also shifts costs to a dwindling number of private payers who must pay higher rates for their usually shorter LTC terms of need to compensate.

Thus, Medicaid is the dominant payer for the longest needs and largest LTC expenditures. But Medicaid is a public assistance program presumed to have draconian income and asset limits that block eligibility. That is why most analysts and the media assume that people must spend down both their income and assets for LTC until, impoverished, they qualify for Medicaid benefits. It is this “Fallacy of Impoverishment”[12] that resolves the paradox of low public out-of-pocket LTC spending despite sky-high national LTC expenditures.

Financial Eligibility for Medicaid LTC

Medicaid does require low income to qualify for LTC benefits, but most state Medicaid programs deduct private health and LTC expenditures from income before applying the low-income standard. So, even high income people qualify if their medical and LTC costs are commensurately high, as they usually are for seniors in need of expensive, extended care. Some states do cap income instead, but they allow special income diversion trusts to achieve the same purpose of enabling higher income people to qualify.

Likewise, high assets do not interfere with eligibility for Medicaid LTC. Most large assets seniors own, such as homes, tax-favored retirement savings, or an automobile are exempt. Countable assets, such as cash, stocks, bonds, really anything easily convertible to cash, are usually capped at $2,000. But excess countable wealth is easily converted to exempt status by using it to purchase exempt assets. See “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak.”[13] Long lists of exempt resources to facilitate this process are readily available on line or from financial advisers who specialize in reconfiguring clients’ income and assets to qualify them for Medicaid LTC benefits. Bottom line, virtually no amount of income or assets automatically disqualifies someone from qualifying for LTC funded by Medicaid and practically any amount of wealth can be reconfigured to secure Medicaid LTC eligibility.

Mystery Solved

It should be clear now what is going on. The conundrum of how private out-of-pocket LTC spending can be so low when total national LTC spending is so high is solved. The public handles relatively small, shorter-term LTC expenses out of their available income and assets without severe difficulty. But as LTC need extends in time and cost, pressure builds on families to find a way to fund the care. Millions take on the responsibility of caring for loved ones without pay, but the financial and emotional stress is so great that many seek help elsewhere. Turned away by Social Security and Medicare, which do not pay directly for LTC, they eventually discover Medicaid. There they find the help they seek, but it comes with all the downsides associated with the program such as the need to rejigger income and assets to qualify, access and quality problems, institutional bias, long home care waiting lists, and discrimination due to providers preferring higher-rate private payers.

Consequences

What are the ramifications of this unwieldy LTC system for each of its economic stakeholders? For government, the dominant payer, LTC is a huge expense that unrelentingly compounds budget deficits and long-term debt. For the public, LTC is a risk about which they are in denial until they need it, at which time Medicaid obviates the biggest cost, further desensitizing future generations to LTC risk. For senior advocates, LTC means seeking extra government benefits, while missing the irony that the more government spends on LTC, the less incentive people have to prepare privately for the risk. For Medicaid planners, LTC generates big profits from artificially impoverishing affluent clients to qualify them for benefits while holding back “key money” so their clients can access the best publicly financed care available to the exclusion of needier recipients. For care providers, LTC is a race for survival, as they struggle to supply quality care despite inadequate reimbursement from public programs that crowd out private payers at market rates. To the financiers who supply the debt and equity capital to build, operate and maintain care facilities, LTC requires a constant search to find profitable projects in a market dominated by poor public payers. Finally, for insurers, LTC is a hopeless challenge to sell a product government has been giving away since Medicaid began in 1965. These players in the LTC marketplace compete to squeeze scraps of benefit or profit from a centrally planned, government-dominated system that serves none of them well, and simultaneously defies reform.

Solutions

What can be done? This entrenched LTC economic system must be disrupted to its core. All payers, including Medicaid, should pay market rates to all LTC providers. This would reduce caregiver shortages and mitigate access and quality problems through market competition. To be able to pay market rates, however, Medicaid would need to cover fewer recipients. To reduce Medicaid LTC dependency without harming people in need, the program’s financial eligibility limits must be tightened gradually so that the public has time to adjust to a new reality of heightened private LTC risk. To achieve that objective, the system should exempt everyone under 55 years of age and anyone already needing LTC from the following changes.

1.  Keep Medicaid’s treatment of income the same, continuing to require a low income standard after deducting private medical and LTC expenses from total income. Excess Social Security, pension and other private income should continue to offset Medicaid’s cost for recipients’ care, but the income flowing to LTC providers should be at market rates eliminating Medicaid’s artificially low reimbursements and reinvigorating the entire LTC service delivery system.

2.  Stanch Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak. Stop allowing Medicaid applicants to purchase exempt assets in order to spend down unlimited, otherwise countable resources artificially. Instead, treat asset spend down the same as income spend down, by limiting it to deductions for actual, documented private medical or LTC expenditures.

3.  Bring seniors’ $14 trillion[14] of home equity into the LTC financing system by eliminating or vastly reducing Medicaid’s home equity exemption. At its current 2025 level between $730,000 and $1,097,000,[15] Medicaid’s misplaced generosity diverts nearly all home equity away from LTC funding, enough alone to solve most of LTC’s many access and quality problems.

4.  Stop “Medicaid Asset Protection Trusts”[16] and “Medicaid Compliant Annuities”[17] from diverting vast sums of private wealth from LTC spending into taxpayer-financed Medicaid expenditures. These legal gimmicks, used exclusively by the affluent clients of Medicaid planning specialists, should be illegal.

5.  Medicaid’s 5-year asset transfer look-back[18] is too short to discourage intentional self-impoverishment to qualify for LTC benefits. Expand it to 20 years. As home ownership and transfers are publicly recorded by county assessors and recorders, respectively, a 20-year look-back rule could be easily administered. It would end one of the most commonly recommended early LTC planning methods.

6.  End systemic LTC racism.[19] Today, affluent Medicaid planners’ clients access the best Medicaid facilities and services to the exclusion of needier groups, including racial and socio-economic minorities, by using “key money”[20] to purchase red-carpet LTC access that the less privileged cannot afford. When all funders, including Medicaid, pay market rates for care this unfair advantage benefiting the well-to-do over the underprivileged will disappear.

7.  Give Medicaid back to the vulnerable aged and disabled people for whom it was originally intended by reversing the program’s new focus on able-bodied, working-age adults.[21]

8.  Allow states to experiment with creative ways to do more with less by encouraging and approving waivers that trade federal matching fund limits for more state-level LTC policy flexibility.

Implementing these eight measures will vastly reduce Medicaid LTC caseloads over time, including the most expensive cases dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. The new program will be better for all who qualify because it will pay market reimbursement rates adequate to ensure access to and quality of care across the care continuum from home to nursing home care. Middle class and affluent people no longer able to qualify for Medicaid LTC while sheltering wealth will find private pay LTC of higher quality and greater availability. They will pay market rates instead of higher private rates inflated by cost shifting caused by earlier artificially low Medicaid rates. With enormous sums of new private financing flowing through the LTC service delivery system at market rates, commercial activity will flourish generating additional tax revenue as more caregivers and LTC providers join the newly profitable sector.

Obstacles

This is an attractive picture. But getting from the dysfunctional system we have now to this vastly different organization of incentives and results is a problem. Critics will excoriate this new approach as uncaring toward people in need despite the irony that most of them believe incorrectly that the existing LTC system already impoverishes millions. But in truth this change will mean better LTC for those most in need who will continue to qualify for assistance from Medicaid. Others who become responsible to pay for their own LTC before they qualify for Medicaid will have time to adjust and prepare before they are affected. People already in need of LTC or under age 55 will remain unaffected and covered by Medicaid.

The biggest challenge to re-inventing LTC in this way is how to awaken the public to the new reality without inciting opposition. No longer will people be able to ignore the risk and cost of LTC in their younger years and still receive Medicaid LTC in old age while preserving wealth. How to achieve a transition from current LTC complacency and government dependency to serious personal responsibility and planning is the major obstacle. Families struggling to make ends meet and save for their own retirement will not look kindly at a new obligation to save, invest or insure for LTC. How can they be relieved of that burden while simultaneously reducing the public financing option that has failed everyone so miserably?

Answers

The solution is to re-prioritize LTC among life’s responsibilities. As this paper has explained, public policy rewards the accumulation of savings, but discourages the use of private wealth to fund LTC. Why should amassing wealth that will pass to heirs if unspent take precedence over funding quality LTC for the living? Why should Medicaid incentivize heirs to use welfare-financed care for their infirm parents’ LTC needs? What if public policy prioritized preparing privately for future LTC need instead? What might such policy look like?

Step one is to inform the public about the loss of Medicaid as a late-life wealth preserving safety net for the middle class and affluent. Then establish and promulgate new LTC planning goals for consumers to achieve no later than age 65 as a precondition for any later Medicaid help with catastrophic costs. Give every citizen an objective analysis of their LTC risk and an estimate of the likely cost of the care they may need some day. Each person could then know what they need to set aside to cover their average expected LTC need. Research shows that an overall average is $70,000 invested by age 65 will cover median paid LTC need.[22] Of course individuals may need to set aside less or more depending on their unique circumstances. While ensuring that every individual’s average LTC risk is covered by private funding would not eliminate Medicaid’s back end catastrophic risk, it would substantially reduce that risk enabling Medicaid to do a better job for all remaining long-duration recipients.

How can people achieve their needed level of LTC savings without undue pressure on their ongoing living needs? One way could be to allow or require individuals and families to earmark other resources they are accumulating, such as retirement savings, home equity or life insurance, to be used for LTC if and only if otherwise unaffordable LTC needs occur in the future. In that manner, wealth being accumulated with strong public policy inducements can be repurposed to fund future LTC without impairing families’ current cash flow. Savings that would otherwise pass through inheritance would go to fund higher quality LTC for the living and create a stronger inducement for younger generations to save, invest or insure for their own future LTC need.

Conclusion

Some government policies encourage citizens to accumulate vast savings. But other public policies discourage them from spending this wealth on LTC. Easy access to Medicaid LTC benefits late in life enables people to ignore LTC risk and cost when they are young without drastic financial consequences later. As a result, few people plan, save, invest or insure for LTC early in life and they end up dependent on Medicaid late in life. But Medicaid distorts the LTC market by dominating it, paying too little for care, and thus causing caregiver shortages and other access and quality problems.

To fix LTC, all payers, including Medicaid, should pay market rates enabling competition to ameliorate service delivery and financing problems. For Medicaid to pay market rates, however, LTC caseloads must decline dramatically. To reduce LTC caseloads, tighten Medicaid LTC financial eligibility limits by ensuring that recipients actually spend down income and assets for real private medical and LTC expenses before becoming eligible. To prepare the general public for this less easily available Medicaid LTC program, identify each person’s likely LTC risk and cost, then let them earmark enough from assets they are otherwise accumulating to satisfy their LTC planning responsibility if and only if needed to fund their future LTC.

This arrangement will induce people to plan for LTC earlier and to pay privately for their care when needed. That private spending will reduce the cost of LTC for Medicaid. Medicaid, relieved of covering so many people who should, could and would have paid for their own LTC absent current public policy incentives to the contrary, will be able to do a better job for all remaining, genuinely needy recipients. The terrible condition of LTC service delivery and financing in the United States is not the result of too little government funding and regulation, but too much. Reconfiguring the carrots and sticks in public policy to redirect vast personal savings toward private LTC financing is the key to improve LTC for everyone, rich and poor alike.
 


[1] Natalie Lin, “US Retirement Assets Hit Record $40T,” Plan Advisor, September 20, 2024, https://www.planadviser.com/us-retirement-assets-hit-record-40t/

[2] Keith Griffith, “Homeowners Are Sitting on Their Biggest Share of Equity Since the 1950s,” realtor.com, October 1, 2024, URL: “Meanwhile, aggregate homeowner equity reached a new high of $35.1 trillion for the quarter, up 10% from a year ago and triple what it was 10 years ago.”

[3] American Council of Life Insurers, 2024 Life Insurers Fact Book, November 8, 2024, [LINK]: “By the end of 2023, total life insurance coverage in the United States was $22.2 trillion, an increase of 1.6 percent from 2022 (Table 7.1).”

[4] KFF, “Dying Broke: A New Jointly Reported Series on America’s Long-Term Care Crisis from KFF Health News and The New York Times,” November 14, 2023, KFF Health News, [LINK]

[5] Note that KFF argues that Medicare and Private Insurance should not be included in LTC expenditures, which would drop the total for 2023 from $629.3 billion to $469.3 billion, raise Medicaid’s share from 44.2 percent to 59.3 percent and increase out-of-pocket expenditures from 12.9 percent to 17.4 percent. I disagree with KFF’s reasoning. For their analysis and mine, see respectively Priya Chidambaram and Alice Burns, “10 Things About Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS),” KFF, July 8, 2024 [LINK] and Stephen A. Moses, “LTC Bullet: LTC Data Manipulation,” Center for Long-Term Care Reform, August 30, 2024, https://centerltc.com/bullets/archives2024/1388.htm

[6] Richard W. Johnson and Judith Dey, “Long-Term Services and Supports for Older Americans: Risks and Financing, 2022,” ASPE Research Brief, August 2022 (Revised), p. 6, [LINK]

[7] Richard W. Johnson and Claire Xiaozhi Wang, “The Financial Burden of Paid Home Care on Older Adults: Oldest and Sickest Are Least Likely to Have Enough Income,” Health Affairs, 38, No. 6 (2019), p. 1000, https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00025

 [8] Genworth Cost of Care Survey 2023, Genworth Financial, Inc., July 11, 2024, https://pro.genworth.com/riiproweb/productinfo/pdf/131168.pdf

[9] Recent academic LTC literature does not distinguish between the share of out-of-pocket LTC expenditures coming from personal income as opposed to assets or savings. We know from earlier analysis, however, that it is substantial. According to Lazenby and Letsch (1989): “An estimated 41 percent … of out-of-pocket spending for nursing home care was received as income by patients or their representatives from monthly social security benefits ... .” Given that elderly people have other sources of income besides Social Security, such as pensions, annuities and investment returns, all of which, except for a small monthly maintenance needs allowance, must be contributed to offset Medicaid’s cost for their care, it is reasonable to assume that income, as opposed to asset spend down, approaches or exceeds 50 percent of total out-of-pocket LTC spending. Helen C Lazenby, Suzanne W Letsch, “National health expenditures, 1989,” Health Care Financing Review, 1990 Winter;12(2):1–26, [LINK]

[10] American Council on Aging. “2021 Nursing Home Costs by State and Region, Understanding the Difference Between Private Pay and Medicaid Reimbursement,” https://www.medicaidplanningassistance.org/nursing-home-costs. Accessed January 4, 2025.

[11] Liz Liberman, “Medicaid Reimbursement Rates Draw Attention,” NIC/CARES blog, 2018, [LINK]

[12] Stephen A. Moses. “The Fallacy of Impoverishment,” The Gerontologist, volume 30, Issue 1, February 1990, pages 21–25, https://academic.oup.com/gerontologist/article-abstract/30/1/21/586769 

[13] Stephen A. Moses, “Medicaid’s $100+ Billion Leak,” Paragon Health Institute, July 1, 2024, https://paragoninstitute.org/paragon-prognosis/medicaids-100-billion-leak/

[14] Erica Drzewiecki, “Senior Home Equity Reaches $14 Trillion,” National Mortgage Professional, October 8, 2024, URL.

[15] American Council on Aging, “Projected 2025 Medicaid Long-Term Care Financial Eligibility Criteria: Home Equity Limits,” accessed January 4, 2025, https://www.medicaidplanningassistance.org/medicaid-eligibility-2025/

“States projected to use $1,097,000 as the home equity limit in 2025: Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and Washington. … California does not have a home equity limit.”

[16] American Council on Aging, “How Medicaid Planning Trusts Protect Assets and Homes from Estate Recovery,” accessed January 4, 2025, https://www.medicaidplanningassistance.org/asset-protection-trusts/

[17] American Council on Aging, “How Purchasing a Medicaid Compliant Annuity Impacts Eligibility for Medicaid Long-Term Care,” accessed January 4, 2025, https://www.medicaidplanningassistance.org/eligibility-by-annuity/

[18] American Council on Aging, “Understand Medicaid’s Look-Back Period; Penalties, Exceptions & State Variances,” accessed January 4, 2025, https://www.medicaidplanningassistance.org/medicaid-look-back-period/

[19] Tetyana Pylypiv Shippee, et al., “Evidence for Action: Addressing Systemic Racism Across Long-Term Services and Supports,” Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, February 2022, 23(2):214-219, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34958742/

[20] Search for “key money” in this article: Flaster Greenberg PC, “Top Tips For A Successful Medicaid Spend Down,” May 17, 2019, accessed January 4, 2025, https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/top-tips-for-a-successful-medicaid-67619/

[21] Brian Blase, “Medicaid Financing Reform: Stopping Discrimination Against the Most Vulnerable,” Paragon Health Institute, July 24, 2024, URL.

[22] Inferred from Johnson and Dey as explained in “Long-Term Care: The Solution,” p. 17, footnotes 47-50.
 

#############################

 

Updated Friday, November 21, 2025, 10:03 AM (Pacific)
 
Seattle—


#############################

LTC BULLET: CATO ON LTC

LTC Comment: Cato published papers on long-term care financing reform in 2005 and again this year. After slow progress for two decades a change for the better may be coming soon. Reflections after the ***news.*** 

*** REGISTRATION IS NOW OPEN for the 2026 Intercompany Long Term Care Insurance Conference! Organizers report: “Our in-person conference March 8-11, 2026 at the Rosen Shingle Creek in Orlando, FL is now accepting attendee registrations! As always, our agenda will include numerous educational sessions over two days across seven tracks with ample time for networking and reconnecting with colleagues. We still have room for exhibitors and sponsors!  Please contact us at info@iltciconf.org if you are interested in either opportunity to showcase your products and services to our attendees. Everyone who's anyone in Long Term Care Planning will be there. What about your company?” Damon and I will be there to work and cover the conference, respectively. See you then. ***

LTC BULLET: CATO ON LTC

LTC Comment: In 2005, public policy regarding LTC financing was in ferment. The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl. State and federal politicians worried about making fiscal ends meet. Medicaid LTC expenditures soared while public interest in private LTC insurance waned. Policymakers worried about funding LTC, but frequent appeals for a big new entitlement program for that purpose fell flat. The best thing I can say about that time two decades ago is that LTC and fiscal responsibility still mattered to legislators and policymakers.

I spent half that year commuting from Seattle to Washington, DC—2 weeks on, 2 weeks off—to advocate for tighter Medicaid financial eligibility rules, stronger estate recoveries, and more support for private LTC insurance. I spoke to everyone who would listen from all the LTC trade associations, to members of Congress and their staffs, to experts at the most influential think tanks, Cato, AEI, and Heritage. We had high hopes to pass legislation that would encourage the public to plan early for LTC and save, invest or insure for that risk instead of ending up on Medicaid by default.

That was how things stood on September 1, 2005 when the Cato Institute published “Aging America’s Achilles’ Heel: Medicaid Long-Term Care.” If you don’t feel like reading that 18-page article, listen instead to this 6-minute interview that summarizes it generated by Google Illuminate. Or, better yet, check out this hour-long debate between yours truly and Vincent Russo, who is a Medicaid planner with three offices in New York as well as a founding member and fifth president of the National Academy of Elder Law Attorneys, the Medicaid planners’ trade association.

As it turned out, we did get meaningful legislation the following March 2006 when Vice President Dick Cheney flew back from the Middle East expressly to break a Senate deadlock and pass the Deficit Reduction Act of 2005. The DRA ’05 enacted the first ever cap on Medicaid home equity, setting the exemption between $500,000 and $750,000 at state option. The legislation also unleashed the LTC Partnership program that had been stifled for years by a prohibition against exempting sheltered assets from estate recovery. Those were two steps in the right direction, but not nearly enough.

Unfortunately, the DRA ’05 was the last significant progress America has made toward saving Medicaid LTC benefits for the needy and diverting middle class and affluent people toward savings, investment or insurance for LTC. An amazing thing happened in the U.S. during those intervening years. The Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to near zero setting off a government, corporate, and personal spending spree such as the country had never seen before. State and federal budgets exploded; national debt soared to $38 trillion; and personal wealth from home equity, stocks, and bonds skyrocketed. The wealthy profited more than ever; the needy made few if any gains.

As long as this economic party continued, the powers-that-be had little interest in fixing Medicaid LTC. I’d noticed over the years that when the economy went into recession and politicians couldn’t stay within budgets, they showed interest in ideas and recommendations to control Medicaid LTC costs, especially when proposed to improve care access and quality at the same time. But when the good times rolled, they lost interest. That’s why I’m hopeful now.

The U.S. economy is showing signs of stress. Interest rates are up. National debt is in the stratosphere. Interest on the debt exceeds defense expenditures. Deficits approaching $2 trillion per year increase the debt immediately and boost debt-service costs over time. Doubts emerge that the United States can service its debt going forward. That means it will struggle repaying bondholders for their investments resulting in America’s creditors losing confidence in the dollar. The