LTC Bullet:  False Spring in Long-Term Care Winter 

Wednesday, January 3, 2007 

Seattle-- 

LTC Comment:  Despite current optimism, LTC financiers and providers should worry about dwindling private payers, increasing dependency on government revenue, and lack of funding from private insurance or reverse mortgages.  Details after the ***news.*** 

*** CHECK OUT this unusually good article on the risks and costs of long-term care in last Saturday's New York Times.  "Elder-Care Costs Deplete Savings of a Generation," by Jane Gross, December 30, 2006, here .  Do it today while access to the online piece is still free. *** 

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*** NEED A WEBSITE?  All you have to do to have your very own LTC website designed by LTC Connection is to join the Center for Long-Term Care Reform.  That's right, join the Center for $150 per year, get all our publications and access to The Zone, and on top of that LTC Connection will design your website and waive their usual $149 fee.  Or look at it this way, buy your website from LTC Connection through the Center and get a year of membership in the Center for only $1 more.  Sure, you'll have to pay LTC Connection's $39 per month website maintenance fee, but you'll get a whole year of LTC Bullets and LTC E-Alerts for no extra charge.  So, what do you have to do?  Just contact Damon at 206-283-7036 or damon@centerltc.com, join the Center, pay your membership fee, and say "I want my website."  We'll connect you with the right person at LTC Connection and you'll be on your way.  Great content from the Center and a great website from LTC Connection.  How can you beat it?  Already a member of the Center but want your free website?  No problem.  Renew your annual membership early and get the same deal. ***  

 

LTC BULLET:  FALSE SPRING IN LONG-TERM CARE WINTER 

LTC Comment:  Steve Moses's article on the misguided optimism of long-term care financiers and providers is republished below with permission from Health Care News.  Health Care News is The Heartland Institute's national monthly outreach publication for free-market health care reform.  The Heartland Institute is a 501c3 charitable, nonprofit organization devoted to discovering and promoting free-market solutions to social and economic problems.  Visit Heartland at www.heartland.org.  Read Health Care News at http://www.heartland.org/Publications.cfm?pblId=2.  Find Steve's article in the January 2007 issue at http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=20382.  

After I wrote "False Spring in Long-Term Care Winter," the article republished below, the following item appeared in the December 2006 issue of The NIC Insider, an e-newsletter of the National Investment Center (NIC):  http://www.nic.org/insider/default.asp#percentage.  It underscores the reason for alarm that I raised in the article.  Private payers in nursing homes are in free fall!  (Steve Moses) 

"Percentage of Private Pay Residents in Nursing Homes Shows Significant Decline.  Over the two-year period from Q3, 2004 to Q3, 2006, the percentage of private pay residents (residents in beds where the majority of payment comes from private sources as opposed to Medicaid, Medicare, insurance companies or other government/charity programs) in freestanding nursing homes has declined considerably.  In the third quarter of 2004, 14.2% of all residents in freestanding nursing homes were paid primarily by private sources.  By the end of the third quarter of 2006, only 10.8% of all residents in freestanding nursing homes were paid primarily from private sources.  This is a 24% reduction in the private pay percentage, or over 15,000 occupied private pay beds in the 30 largest Metro Markets." 

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"False Spring in Long-Term Care Winter" 

Written By: Stephen A. Moses
Published In: Health Care News
Publication Date: January 1, 2007
Publisher: The Heartland Institute 

Savvy public policymakers know that funding long-term care (LTC) will be a long, cold slog. 

Even if they weather the perfect storm of impending Medicare and Social Security insolvencies, Medicaid--especially its LTC component--threatens to sink the ship of state when Boomers need expensive care. 

Everyone knows the scary demographics and Medicaid's frightening budget impact. No need to repeat that here. 

So, given the foreboding future of an industry heavily dependent on government financing, why are long-term care providers and the capital markets that support them thriving again? After a turn-of-the-millennium slump that sent eight nursing home chains into bankruptcy, left the assisted living industry overbuilt and under-occupied, and nearly choked off capital for all sectors of seniors housing, long-term care providers and financiers are cheerful and optimistic again. 

To find out what's going on, I attended the annual conventions of two long-term care industry associations. What I learned should give policymakers, taxpayers, and investors an icy chill. 

Booming Business 

The National Investment Center (NIC) met in late September in Chicago for its sold-out 16th annual conference. NIC is a research organization that describes its mission as serving long-term care" lenders, investors, developers/operators, and others interested in meeting the housing and health care needs of America's seniors" by "facilitating informed investment decision-making and providing excellence in networking, professional education, and research." 

Everybody who is anybody in the long-term care investment class was there. 

What was the buzz at NIC? 

"The seniors housing and care industry has never been hotter," enthused an NIC flyer. 

"This is one of the healthiest periods of time for all sectors of the seniors housing industry. Everyone is doing well, even skilled nursing facilities," summarized David Schless, executive director of the American Seniors Housing Association. 

NIC Board Chair Sarah Sumner Duggan said, "Seniors housing is producing very attractive returns. Investors in Emeritus Assisted Living enjoyed a 403 percent return in a year." 

Rising Numbers 

A similar tone of optimism prevailed at the other industry meeting I attended, early in October at San Antonio's cavernous conference center--the 57th annual convention and exposition of the American Health Care Association (AHCA), which represents skilled nursing facilities, and the National Center for Assisted Living. 

"The state of our industry is healthy," said AHCA President and CEO Bruce Yarwood, even as he contrasted today's conditions with the deep funk his association and the industry it represents faced only a year ago. 

Michael Hargrave, an expert on seniors housing metrics, backed up Yarwood's optimism with hard numbers. Median nursing facility occupancy surged from 92.7 percent to 94.1 percent in the latest four calendar quarters, and revenue per occupied bed over the past four quarters jumped from $165 to $175. 

Submerged Issue 

Likewise, according to Hargrave, median occupancy of assisted living facilities rose from 94.0 percent in Q2 2005 to 95.8 percent in Q2 2006, delivering an increase in revenue per occupied unit from $2,931 to $3,100 within a year. 

That's fantastic news for nursing homes and assisted living facilities--their percentage occupancy rates were in the mid-80s only four years ago. Both sectors' profitability and stock prices also have spiked up.

So, what can we conclude from this rosy scenario? Long-term care providers and financiers are making money hand over fist, so public policymakers should cut their Medicaid and Medicare reimbursements even further? Whoa, don't jump to that conclusion. Here's what I think is going on. 

Coming Crisis 

The bottom fell out of seniors housing a few years ago when the industry disappointed Wall Street by over-promising and under-delivering. The pipeline of new construction and capital to finance building and operation dried up. Now, to compensate, as one speaker said at the NIC conference: "There is too much capital chasing too few deals." 

Hence this could be a very risky time for investors in seniors housing. The industry is in danger of repeating the mistakes it made only a few years ago. 

Why? Simple. Aging demographics (the oncoming Age Wave) suggest seniors housing is a lucrative field for the future. Investors get stars in their eyes thinking about the tremendous potential. 

But it is as evident today as it was when the industry hit the skids six years ago that the financiers of long-term care--the people and institutions that provide the debt and equity capital to fund the industry--don't see the big picture. 

They continue to ignore the deteriorating condition of public financing through Medicaid and Medicare. They see privately financed sectors of the industry, such as independent living and assisted living, are thriving, and they rejoice. They see conditions improving in the publicly financed sector of the industry, especially skilled nursing, and feel hopeful. 

But they fail to see the handwriting on the wall. 

Lost Focus 

The potential of private financing for seniors housing is severely limited by the low market penetration of private long-term care insurance and the virtual lack of a long-term care financing source from home equity conversion. 

In addition, Medicare and Medicaid are in a long, slow process of decline as funding sources for long-term care. Yet, most of the NIC speakers and attendees seemed oblivious to these trends. 

The AHCA/NCAL presenters were much more concerned. They warned Medicaid's reimbursements to nursing homes are currently $4.5 billion short of breaking even; that Congress is under pressure to cut relatively generous Medicare reimbursements that now help make up for Medicaid's shortfall; that popular policies to de-institutionalize Medicaid recipients and take care of them in home- and community-based settings will mean shorter stays of higher acuity residents who require more expensive care even as the floor under government reimbursements sags ominously. 

Sure, times are good now. The economy is booming, welfare rolls are down, and tax receipts are up. On October 10 the Kaiser Family Foundation reported, "State revenues increased faster than Medicaid spending for the first time since 1998," and, "While cost control remains a priority, state Medicaid officials appear to have moved away from a primary focus on cost containment to a range of priorities including expansions or restorations of eligibility and benefits, improving quality, and changing the delivery of long-term care services." 

Dire Prediction 

It is only a matter of time, however, before another fiscal downturn occurs. With the economy in recession, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid languishing, public financing of long-term care declining, and private financing sources strained, the seniors housing industry will once again struggle to perform at levels of investment return sufficient to attract adequate capital. 

The more careless public officials are with their spending and the less cautious investors are with their capital, the sooner the next crisis will come and the more devastating it will be. 

My prediction is that the financiers of seniors housing and long-term care are slowly moving toward another day of reckoning that will plunge their business into another economic funk similar to the one from which it has just emerged. 

Time will tell, but the warning signs of a false spring in the long-term care winter are already clearly evident. 

Stephen Moses (smoses@centerltc.com) is president of the Seattle-based Center for Long-Term Care Reform.