LTC Bullet: The CIA on Global Aging

Monday, December 3, 2001


***Important Reminder: Check out the Center’s new "LTC Week in Review" feature published every Monday afternoon in our website donor-only zone. Titles in today’s edition include: "Most Nursing Homes Use Drugs Appropriately," "Out of the Frying Pan into the Pyre," "The Headlines Say it All," "Empty Promises," and "Elder Care for Less than a Baby-Sitter?" Details on how to access the donor only zone are available at See you there!***

Last July 2001, the Central Intelligence Agency published a fascinating and sobering report on global aging titled "Long-Term Global Demographic Trends Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape."  Here are a few tidbits to whet your appetite for this international data.  Contact the CIA to obtain the full report; the link we originally had to the CIA website for this report no longer works.

Human population was 150 million in A.D. 1; 900 million in 1800; 2.4 billion in 1950; 5 billion in 1985 and 8 billion in 2020 (p. 2)

"To truly appreciate what the projected population of the world's more than 7.8 billion people would look like by 2020, we have projected their mix into 100 people:

"Fifty-six of them would be from Asia, including 19 Chinese and 17 Indians.

"Thirteen would be from our hemisphere, including four from the United States.

"Sixteen would be from Africa, including 13 from Sub-Saharan Africa.

"Three would be from the Middle East.

"Seven would be from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union.

"Five would be from Western Europe." (p. 5)

Between now and 2050: "The population of the region that served as the locus for most 20th-century history--Europe and Russia--will shrink dramatically in relative terms; almost all population growth will occur in developing nations that until now have occupied places on the fringes of the global economy." (p. 5)

"By 2050, the global 65 plus age cohort will triple in size to about 1.5 billion, or 16 percent of the total." (p. 5)

"Despite the general trend toward aging, many developing nations will experience substantial youth bulges: the largest proportional youth populations will be located in PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, SAUDI ARABIA, YEMEN, AND IRAQ." (p. 5, emphasis added)